Sometimes you have to pay...

Vitaliy_Kiselev

Goldman Sachs report about PIGS :-)

http://www.scribd.com/doc/53525577/European-Greek-Restructuring

Japan and USA are, in fact, in much worse state.

Vitaliy_Kiselev

Want to add small info:

Two year Greece notes, 25% :-)

johnnym

I agree on the sepsis. The way money is injected into the economy is poisoned due to the way the money is levied (for private gain instead of social gain) before it is spent. You say the end of fractional reserve lending is too simple a solution. Yet as a solution it would take away the risk that banks can collapse, which i think caused the crisis. But i will look into it further to make sure this is correct. It is an interesting topic to study nonetheless.

stoney

Look at the volatility. Refusing to make lower low.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX:$VXV&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p38246664063

stoney

QE3 might be already being priced in.

Copper is the leading indicator. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COPPER&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p86065272530

Not looking good.

Vitaliy_Kiselev

>Hmmm... market crash this year?

This do not mean anything.
Except that it is simple technical analysys :-)
Having two lines (support and resistance) forming triangle could mean that probability for market trend change near intersection is larger. MA (and MACD below) are just toys really (and they are not leading indicators).
Big boys are looking at QE3 (in official or unofficial form).

stoney

Hmmm... market crash this year?

Vitaliy_Kiselev

Another interesting data:

Vitaliy_Kiselev

> why did the bubble burst? Is it not, because banks issued too much credit (hence too many people worldwide start defaulting on their loans)?

It burst because people are not machines, so they start to think that it is too much risk, too much debt.
So, banks could not find any more people to give them money (some do not want to get more and some can't be thrusted because they can't return even current amounts).

Back to my analogies.
You patient died due to extremely high temperature. Fast conclusion is that we used wrong medication and we must had fight this temperature using simple drugs. Under more detailed examination you'll see that it had sepsis and high temperature had been a way organism fights with the problem (unfortunately for patient, problem had been too large to handle).

johnnym

Yes i see your point.

Let me ask then : why did the bubble burst? Is it not, because banks issued too much credit (hence too many people worldwide start defaulting on their loans)?

Vitaliy_Kiselev

Some interesting charts:

As you can see, both countries already had problems with employment.

And both successfully used banks (and as you could see from their debt problems, not only local banks) to make bubbles and reduce unemployment inflating them (so, bubbles are made from good intentions, usually, but could result in big problems).
We can see that medication really worked.

johnnym

lol

well as you might expect from my previous posts, i share this naivity. :)

Vitaliy_Kiselev

>Why "Veni, vidi, vici"?

Because it sounds even more naive than Mother Teresa plans to become head of Goldman Sachs.

johnnym

>"This obstacle will be overcome only when the arguments for monetary reform are more widely understood, when opposition to it is more widely recognised as mere defence of private privilege, and when its opponents accept that they risk losing more by continuing to oppose it than by losing the present subsidy. National and international advocacy and campaigning will be needed to bring that situation about."
Reminds me of "Veni, vidi, vici" :-)

Why "Veni, vidi, vici" ? (How do you relate the conquering of an emperor to this statement from Robertson?)

24K

---------------

johnnym

>That confused me, so I wanted to ask.

Being aware of history, I nevertheless gave my arguments in earlier posts of why i think things have changed since a while.

stoney

Major banking crises were usually followed by major wars. Fractional system was just a byproduct of a bigger picture. Rapid population growth. Rapid production. Rapid expansion. The need for massive credit expansion. Welcome to the 21st century. Global warming. Peak oil. Blah blah. It doesn't welcome rapid population growth anymore. Taking the power away from the central banks won't fix much. If it happens, it will also be just a byproduct of a totally different bigger picture as the pendulum is swinging the other way. Whatever that is coming... won't be anything better than what we have "enjoyed". One day, if we live long enough, we will see the old photo and video and think how wonderful the life was in 2011.

The bottomline... stop wasting time... start shooting more photo and video.

Vitaliy_Kiselev

Just for fun.

Food Price Index

Vitaliy_Kiselev

This is thing about opposition:
"This obstacle will be overcome only when the arguments for monetary reform are more widely understood, when opposition to it is more widely recognised as mere defence of private privilege, and when its opponents accept that they risk losing more by continuing to oppose it than by losing the present subsidy. National and international advocacy and campaigning will be needed to bring that situation about."
Reminds me of "Veni, vidi, vici" :-)

Tesselator

I wanna comment again if I may:

Johnnym wrote: "You merely state there will be war and mayhem. I don't think so and i gave you some reasons why."

My question is how can you not think so when it's been happening for the past 100 years and is still happening today. There is war and mayhem happening right now - because of central banks, the IMF, petro-dollars, and the likes. So if it's happening right now (which it is) how can you think it's not happening or won't continue to happen? Or do you only mean inside the continental United States?

That confused me, so I wanted to ask.

Vitaliy_Kiselev

Until discussion turns back to the point from pointless "motivating your own objections".
And until @johnnym will actually read part about objections in the book that he recommend himself, this topic will be heavily moderated to leave only data and views (ones that I don't like are absolutely ok also :-) ).

P.S. @johnnym you are not censored :-) I just removed pointless post without any information. I really hope that our discussion will turn back to real arguments, not in the religion fights.

Vitaliy_Kiselev

>That's a lame accusation and a poor excuse for not motivating your own objections to the theory.

You again want to converse this into personal fight.
I already said that this is not a place and I am not intended to start it.
I support talks about politics, but only if they bring some data and educate in some way.
Your lasts posts are not of this nature. Generally quite many posts already, because Robertson, unfortunately did not provide any answers to my objections or raised points. So, you must stop believing and start to work yourself.

johnnym

>You seems to believe in Robertsons theory. Like in some form of religion. It's a pity.

That's a lame accusation and a poor excuse for not motivating your own objections to the theory.

In martial arts they would say : under the belt!

Vitaliy_Kiselev

@johnnym

You seems to believe in Robertsons theory. Like in some form of religion. It's a pity.

johnnym

>:-) Glad to hear that you see so many interesting things at once :-)

What can i say? :)

>I already said about objections in Robertsons book. Mostly they are poor, but worse - Robertson is even unable to provide any reasons why his own (!) objections are not valid.

I never see you say why your objections are. You state them like they're carved in stone, but what is the reasoning behind your objections?

>It means that EU is some kind of model here?

Cash is only 1.5% of total money supply. Not really a model is it?

>And this "NEW money" again :-) I like it. :-)

Wasn't this clear the whole time that the discussion is about injecting new money? What else do you think fractional reserve banking is all about? It is only about NEW money!

>Back to my analogy, you propose to cure sepsis by blood vessels elimination. While it is serious problem and chance of bad overcome is high, this is not a solution that works :-)

But you never motivate why it doesn't work. (And it seems you keep thinking that i want to get rid of banks, which i never said)

Vitaliy_Kiselev

> I too saw the hack is progressing rapidly.

:-) Glad to hear that you see so many interesting things at once :-)

>Vitaliy, the reason the objections you raise aren't accepted by me is because to me those objections are not relevant (there are other objections and those are addressed in Robertson's book Creating New Money).

I already said about objections in Robertsons book. Mostly they are poor, but worse - Robertson is even unable to provide any reasons why his own (!) objections are not valid.

While I like to hear words like "elections", "evolutionary and not revolutionary", etc.

I also see complete absence of real way to archieve this, any real analysys how you will be overcoming opposition and, most importantly, how and why it'll work in the real life and not on the paper.

>"i don't think it necessary for banks to decide how much NEW money flows into the economy, but for the central bank to decide this, and the central bank MANAGERS can give the profit of this new money to the government like happens now with cash in the EU"

It means that EU is some kind of model here?
And this "NEW money" again :-) I like it. :-)

>You merely state there will be war and mayhem. I don't think so and i gave you some reasons why (because times have changed compared to 50-200 years ago)

Just looked. Did not find any angels around me. Looks like they all live around your house :-)

>As to centralisation, this system has created more centralisation and accumulation of wealth, and monopolies, than any other system we know of.

Any of this parts have their own reasons to exists. Not because of "fractional system" :-)

Back to my analogy, you propose to cure sepsis by blood vessels elimination. While it is serious problem and chance of bad overcome is high, this is not a solution that works :-)

Howdy, Stranger!

Categories

Tags in Topic

Top Posters