TSMC plans to launch an enhanced version of 3nm process technology in 2023, with Apple being the initial customer adopting the process, according to industry sources.

For Apple 3nm launch is very important, if it will fail or delays by 1-2 years it can be real dissaster.

As process advantage is 60-70% of all Apple performance gains for now.

Spending distribution

TSMC is expected to have an about 20% sequential increase in wafer shipments for 5nm process in first-half 2021, according to industry sources.

Almost all of this will go to non Apple orders.

Charlie Demerjian (author of SemiAccurate):

1. 10nm in "full production" and "shipping for revenue" since late 2018. Charlie still doesn't think it's viable. Much more real than it once was though, but not good enough.
2. Superfin is unquestionably far better than base 10nm. Better in just about every way. Yields are better, but still on the low side.
3. CNL had a yield of <25% even with iGPU disabled (seems a bit high to me but huh).
4. 10nm SF yields are far better but not as good as 14 (no surprises there). Past 50%.
5. Not enough 10nm capacity to handle the entire product stack yet. Charlie doesn't like Rocket Lake, considers the backport "painfully stupid". Will be huge and a power hog.
6. 14nm shortage caused by the fact that Intel had to bloat up die sizes.
7. OEMs told they were to get a "small fraction" of orders of TGL. Improvements to yield won't fully help because no. of wafer starts is still low.
8. He doesn't think 10nm will ever exceed 14nm capacity-wise.
9. Ice Lake delayed again due to a bug, but this is a good thing. Looking like it'll come mid-late Q2 to early Q3 (although Charlie originally said March + 1.5-2 month delay?).
10. Performance looks pretty poor. Akin to CL-SP actually - performance per socket remains the same but power rises. Core count for shipping parts dropped from 38 -> 36.
11. Ice Lake is disappointing. Sapphire Rapids is way better. Comes in Q2 22.
12. SPR was originally supposed to launch in Q2 21 to ship for Aurora but... yeah. Even then it was basically going to be a broken, alpha product which would be refined over multiple tapeouts.
13. Once SPR fully rolls out and is fully sorted out it'll actually be pretty solid.
14. The problem with SPR is timeline. ICL-SP was supposed to compete with Rome (and it would still lose even with the on-paper and significantly better specs than reality). Milan is going to likely beat SPR... over a year earlier and before ICL-SP rolls out. By the time SPR releases, Genoa will be here or right around the corner. Genoa was supposed to compete with GNR which is late 2023 now.
15. If both companies iterate perfectly on their roadmaps as planned (much easier on AMD's side right now), Intel can not catch up to AMD until late 2024 or early 2025.
16. AMD's biggest problem? Unsurprisingly - capacity.
17. 7nm is significantly more delayed than the 6-12 months first claimed. PVC is in-hands basically now and it was the first 7nm product. Now it's on TSMC. Sometime December this year anyway.
18. Intel may not know how much of a delay we're looking at with 7.
19. Charlie thinks there are several problems with 7, not just 1. However, Charlie hasn't heard anything absolutely solid on the specifics here.
20. Doesn't think Intel could sell fabs. Too many things problems involved. Fabs would need to be evaluated for the buyers needs etc etc.
21. Foveros is more suited to low-power chips than servers/high power.
22. Question about why ARM is more competitive in recent attempts vs previous attempts - Answer: more developed eco-system, lack of real glass-jaws compared to previous designs. Amazon is a bit more of a special case because they can design chips to exactly what they need with all the strengths and benefits that suit them best.
23. Intel are going to out-source CPUs, but what and where is still being debated internally. Decision will be made in Q1 between SS and TSMC for different products. Nothing is set in stone yet.
24. Intel are looking for a new CEO. There are multiple candidates, one has been shot down, 3 potential left. They are hoping to make the decision in Q1, probably after the Jan call. Does seem like Bob's going either way.
25. Question: Will Intel do anything else with the backported core? A: I hope not.
26. Intel won't outsource everything to TSMC because TSMC doesn't have the capacity. Intel grabbing capacity shouldn't take capacity away from AMD - TSMC should prioritise customers with long-term plans to stay with them.
27. There is a 10nm desktop product coming (Alder Lake-S) but Charlie doubts there will be much capacity for it due to it being needed elsewhere.

China's SMIC, which has been added to a US trade blacklist, may have to put the development of its sub-14nm process technologies on hold.

Intel has big issues

Third Point investment fund, which owns a $ 1 billion stake in Intel, sent a letter to chairman of the board of directors Omar Ishrak listing "strategic alternatives" designed to stop the company's business degradation.

Intel management is encouraged to augment the portion of products outsourced to third parties such as TSMC or Samsung. According to the authors of the initiative, it is advisable to create a joint venture with them to ensure the allocation of sufficient production capacity for the release of Intel products. These same joint ventures should attract new customers to the American soil for contract manufacturing of Intel - it is assumed that Apple or Microsoft will want to entrust a new contractor with the release of their processors in the United States.

Intel should get rid of some of its assets, according to activists. We are talking, in particular, about the business of Altera on the development of programmable matrices, for which Intel at one time dumped $ 16.7 billion. Investors also believe that Intel needs to do something about the outflow of qualified personnel, who are demoralized by the policy pursued in recent years company management. In general, Intel has already expressed its willingness to consider the Third Point proposals.

Nice article on silicon progress and processes (use google translate)

https://www.ixbt.com/platform/nanometers-2020.html

According to the source, the revenue of companies in the semiconductor sector in 2021 will increase by 8-10%, while the revenues of specialized companies will grow by 15-18%.

Everything becoming more and more expensive. Mergers will follow.

The US trade ban against China-based SMIC has restricted the pure-play foundry's capability of obtaining semiconductor equipment for its process technology advancements. Nevertheless, a more significant challenge facing SMIC is insufficient supplies of chemical raw materials and consumables.

War will be vicious.

Taiwan manufacturers dreams

IC Insights has forecast that China-produced ICs will represent only 19.4% of the country's IC market in 2025, a fraction of the country's "Made in China 2025" goal of 70%.

Although China has been the largest consuming country for ICs since 2005, it does not necessarily mean that large increases in IC production within China would immediately follow. IC production in China represented 15.9% of its US$143.4 billion IC market in 2020, up from 10.2% in 2010, IC Insights said. Moreover, IC Insights forecast that this share will increase by 3.5pp from 2020 to 19.4% in 2025.

If China-based IC manufacturing rises to US$43.2 billion in 2025 as IC Insights forecasts, China-based IC production would still represent only 7.5% of the total forecast 2025 worldwide IC market of US$577.9 billion. Even after adding a significant markup to some of the Chinese producers' IC sales (many Chinese IC producers are foundries that sell their ICs to companies that re-sell these products to the electronic system producers), China-based IC production would still likely represent only about 10% of the global IC market in 2025.

Taiwan guys are very afraid of any Chinese progress as island is actually very bad place for silicone production due to constant quakes and very expensive also, where each firm keep huge profits.

Silicone factories building costs and workforce are much cheaper in all mainland Chinese regions. Hence the huge fears.

Media now help to make another stock bubble as TSMC badly needs money.