The point of dissention is not fluctuations in the climate, rather the driving factors. And on that issue the science is not settled. Why all this research into cosmic radiation and climate? Anybody can do a quick search and see 'respectable' researchers having a healthy discussion on driving factors.
It'd be easier if you'd just read the peer reviewed literature. Science is not having the discussion you guys think they're having. Is the consensus 100%? of course not, it never is, but the numbers are getting scary and absurd for the few deniers out there trying to push up hill. It's equally easy to follow the money. Oil companies and the hired think tanks perpetrate a uniform and tight message. Obfuscate, confuse, and distract. That's what they do. This isn't rocket science, it's not even climate science. Just follow the money. Lots of old saws popping up, predictably, yes, 30 years ago, LIFE magazine and other media outlets stirred up public interest in global cooling. I think it even became the story for a few bad TV movies. It was a media driven story without backing in any meaningful way from science ....not the way current theories enjoy widespread and deep support from NASA, JPL, IPCC, and 20 out of 20 National Science academies. Interesting eyenorth suggests scientists who predicted the warming pause are now being vilified. I've read several articles on that topic and haven't noticed any pitchforks and torches. Further, there isn't much out there regarding ANYONE predicting a climate pause, there are scientists who observed a pause and then reported it as an observation. Not quite the same thing.
There is more or less a 100% consensus that CO2 causes atmospheric warming. There is no consensus as to the magnitude of that effect or if it's significant/ catastrophic. Lewandosky and others have deliberately misled politicians and the public by conflating those two quite different statements. By doing this (conflating global warming consensus with catastrophic warming noconsensus), his ilk have bounced politicians into energy policies that are driving prices up and killing thousands of elderly through excess winter deaths in the UK alone.
@onion, I'm not familiar with Lewadosky, but I have a problem when psychologists start telling us what the think about climate change or similarly, when oil company shills start telling us what to think. Can't we just go with mainstream scientists that work, unencumbered, in the field of climatology? Is that really too much to ask? Get rid of the Lewandowsys, the Kochs, the exxons, we might actually get somewhere.
Folks here might also ask themselves how, if the consensus is really political, not scientific, who exactly is perpetrating the hoax and who benefits from it?
The measures Obama have proposed (for example) are modest in the extreme; if implemented, his policies would not shake up the fossil fuel industry or achieve much in the way of reduced emissions. There would be winners and losers, but that's true of every technology shift. Indeed, fossil fuel exploitation has actually increased under his presidency, the guy loves fracking and drilling, including on public lands, to the point where actual environmentalists are disgusted with him.
So who exactly is behind this world-wide conspiracy of junk science and how did they achieve such power?
Just 90 companies caused two-thirds of man-made global warming emissions Chevron, Exxon and BP among companies most responsible for climate change since dawn of industrial age
Which companies caused global warming? A new paper shows which companies extracted the carbon-based fuels that have caused climate change. (Interactive chart)
http://static.guim.co.uk/interactivestore/2013/11/20/1384965790607/557603/index.html
I'm convinced that current climate change is (at least partially) caused by human activity - but I'm not so sure this climate change is a bad thing. The vast majority of time that life existed on earth, there was no polar ice, and it was on average warmer than today.
I would be much more concerned about the onset of the next ice age than about a climate change towards history's long term average.
Folks here might also ask themselves how, if the consensus is really political, not scientific, who exactly is perpetrating the hoax and who benefits from it?
Conspiracy paranoia seems more the domain of a small group of climate alarmists. Just do a google search of 'Koch climate denial'. Or read Michael Mann tweets.
Obama's policies are not modest. The USA has already wasted half a billion on subsidies to Solyndra. It looks set to triple that with Ivanpah. More seriously, the extra cost of fuel seriously hurts those living on the margin whose disposable income and purchasing power have already been rocked by the Great Financial Crash.
In the UK, the situation is even worse. The Climate Change Act of 2008 will add huge amounts to our bills, enrich a handful of wealthy landowners like the PM's father-in-law, do nothing to reduce CO2 emissions, do nothing to stimulate genuine innovation in the energy market, and lead to power blackouts.
I think anyone who describes these changes as moderate is not in touch with those many people living in fuel poverty. I think it's a massive vote-loser - Tom Steyer's $65m (an amount way more than the Kochs donated to Heartland) funding climate activism for the mid-terms probably did the democrats more harm than good.
We oftentimes cannot even accurately predict the short term weather forecast, so in my mind any long term forecasts and trends cannot be of any great value other than the important discussions it will spark. Undoubtedly humans are a destructive force. How quickly will this impact us? Remains to be seen. There are too many interactions that we do not fully understand.
Obama's policies are not modest. The USA has already wasted half a billion on subsidies to Solyndra.
Which is nothing, compared to years of oil, gas and nuclear power subsidies, which are in the tens of trillions. If we paid the true cost of these fuels, alternative technologies would be far more appealing and competitive. And if there was a real concern for "fuel poverty", it would be easy enough to reduce the burden of higher energy costs on the poor. But the only truly aggressive attempt to help the poor pay their fuel bills in the U.S. is thanks to Venezuela, which offers subsidies to poor Americans. Indeed, the global warming deniers in the U.S. congress have moved to cut fuel subsidies to the poor.
The Koch Brothers spend hundreds of millions every election cycle -- Tom Steyer is a drop in the bucket.
I can't speak to the UK situation, but we hear similar apocalyptic claims made in the U.S. -- huge bills, blackouts, massive unemployment, all to follow. But business interests always make these claims. Any infringement on their blessed freedom to pollute and pursue profit is the end of civilization as we know it. Oil companies insisted for years that getting the lead out of gasoline would end life in America as we know it. How many times are we expected to fall for this song and dance? Talk about hysteria.....
In the UK, oil and gas are taxed not subsidised. Nuclear is subsidised and is uninsurable by the private sector. Hopefully, that will change with the new tech coming on stream (thorium as well as small nuclear power plants). Under the carbon pricing scheme, oil and gas prices will be forced higher by government diktat in order to make wind more price competitive.
The subsidies for wind power are not driving innovation - they're driving rent-seeking crony corporate profits at the expense of consumer and taxpayer. This is what voters are waking up to and rebelling against.
Did I actually read that we should listen to scientists whom are unencumbered? Perhaps there is a world somewhere called Utopia where scientist and researchers work unencumbered, here in the real world, good luck with that.
Interesting eyenorth suggests scientists who predicted the warming pause are now being vilified. I've read several articles on that topic and haven't noticed any pitchforks and torches. Further, there isn't much out there regarding ANYONE predicting a climate pause, there are scientists who observed a pause and then reported it as an observation.
Well, I can again direct you to the highly regarded director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at the Danish Space Research Institute, prof. Henning Svensmark (BTW he and his research team predicted the cooling period we have experienced back in 1998 based on their observations). This guy is the most humble man ever, and he has been horribly and unjustly attacked by alarmists the last 15+ years. Luckily he has just kept on leading his institute and publicizing their research, even surviving a heart attack during a live tv debate on danish tv where he was pitted against a panel of opponents. And despite all the disdain poured down on him, in later years his institue's results have gained support in other publications around the world including recent CERN experiments on aerosols http://ing.dk/artikel/svensmarks-klimateori-far-rygstod-fra-cern-121410. (use google translate).
Again - not saying greenhouse gases like co2 don't have an effect, just putting forward that the question regarding the main factors in climatic conditions is not settled.
Hopefully, that will change with the new tech coming on stream (thorium as well as small nuclear power plants).
Well, it won't happen any time soon.
Under the carbon pricing scheme, oil and gas prices will be forced higher by government diktat in order to make wind more price competitive.
No. It is same to say that father will get knife and cut his stomach out because he wants to slightly reduce his fat level.
So far, Henning Svensmark doesn't seem to be on oil company payrolls. thankfully. He looks to be, a credible, if not renowned, solar physics guy. Nonetheless, his research appears to be 8-10 years old. And more to the issue, his conclusions are measured and cautious. At times he sounds more like an IPCC signatory than a member of the mercenary class of Koch brother funded skeptics. Here's a quote from his website:
The significant contribution from solar activity variations to global temperature increase does not, however, exclude other contributions to the rising global temperature, natural as well as human. However, taking into account the large uncertainty associated with the estimated human contribution, a good research-based estimate >of the range of natural climate variations is an essential information.
So anyway, I don't want to criticize too much because a guy like Svensmark looks to be a legit outlier and not the typical oil company whore that always gets cited in these discussion or an obligatory reference to fake scandals like Climategate that has already been referenced more than once here. So thanks for including someone who isn't a complete fraudster. Here's to more Svensmarks and less Kochs.
Horrible global warming in UK
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/09/23/uk-weather-trends/
Are you being paid by the Koch brothers to spread denialism Vitaliy :-)
A group of scientists suggested charging people like you with racketeering in a letter referencing a US congressman. They hastily withdrew the letter as it drew attention to probable nepotism and corruption by the lead author Prof Shukla in relation to funding.
There's big bucks in alarmism (trillions), far more than in 'denialism'.
LOL. At least all main media and each and every wide distributed documentary film I saw on topic all have climate things copied from some book, even words and horrors are all same.
From my POV - any climate change, if it exist does, not matter much compared to really important things that are much closer.
Just read the peer reviewed literature. The message has become fairly uniform. There aren't a lot of outliers left in climatology and marine science. They've either retired or changed their position. I don't know why you'd concern yourself with media reports and documentary films on these topics.
'Just read the peer reviewed literature'
What did you think of the two dozen peer-reviewed papers published in the last year on the influence of the sun on the climate?
What did you think of the two dozen peer-reviewed papers published in the last year on the influence of the sun on the climate?
Dissent in anything, especially science is always healthy. I'd worry if there weren't contrarians. Nonetheless, by nearly every measure, there is more than adequate consensus among climate scientists to meet the standard necessary for implementation of public policy. That's the relevant discussion: what do we do now?
There will always be fringe elements scoffing at the thousands of peer reviewed articles by climate experts or suggesting the entire discipline is corrupt and only interested in government handouts or appearing in Al Gore videos. Luckily these numbers continue to diminish as such individuals tend to move on to other fruitful adventures like proving Barack Obama is the leader of an Islamic sleeper cell.
Problem with climate change and rising sea levels is that it is social problem not scientific problem. We need more flexibility in shelter- smarter technology and better usage of resources.
Frankly survivalism should marry with hightech and we should be ok. Many advancements are very useful for survivalism.
Reality is Stone Age didn't end because of new inventions. It ended because there was no choice- something happened and stone age man had to adapt. This is evolution at finest. Adapt or perish.
Problem with climate change and rising sea levels is that it is social problem not scientific problem. We need more flexibility in shelter- smarter technology and better usage of resources
Well, I already wrote about this. It is biological problem, to be exact - you ask species who evolved as best ever in producing maximum entropy to somehow be best in reverse, won't work - http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/8657/technical-progress-is-needed-to-allow-us-to-produce-more-entropy/p1
So brianl - did you read it (as you claimed in that rather broad statement) or didn't you?
The broad consensus is that human-caused CO2 emissions contribute to global warming. Where there is no consensus is over the magnitude of this effect, and whether it will lead to catastrophic global warming.
The Cook (2013) paper, that most recently generated the 97% consensus headline, claims that the consensus is that most warming after 1950 is man-made. However the methodology employed contradicts the headline claim. There are papers he designated as supporting the 'man-made CO2 >50% warming after 1950' claim that specifically reject any quantifiable attribution of anthropogenic CO2 to global warming.
There is a more detailed survey of climate scientists here:
http://ncse.com/files/pub/polls/2010--Perspectives_of_Climate_Scientists_Concerning_Climate_Science_&Climate_Change.pdf
Interestingly, they have little faith in the ability of climate models to accurately model temperature out to 10 years, let alone 50 years. They believe the impacts of global warming will affect other parts of the World but not where they live. Despite this uncertainty, around 82% are convinced that most or near future climate change will be the result of anthropogenic causes. I would call this cognitive dissonance. Around 95% of respondents were funded by Government/ public university - maybe this explains that contradiction. If they stop producing papers 'proving' human CO2 will cause catastrophe, their funding will dry up.
You mention public policy. There is no consensus as to whether adaptation or mitigation are the best public policy approaches in this survey. Certainly the policy of closing down energy producers like coal in Europe and replacing them with heavily subsidised windmills is bananas.
This paper was 5 years ago. Since then, there has been acknowledgment of a pause in global warming by many including the most recent IPCC. By satellite measurements, that pause is over 18 years now, and ready to go off to University and get laid. I wonder how the respondents would reply today.
Finally consensus is no substitute for science anyway.
Around 95% of respondents were funded by Government/ public university - maybe this explains that contradiction. If they stop producing papers 'proving' human CO2 will cause catastrophe, their funding will dry up.
Situation with grants and funding based science is horrible across the world. As science now is similar to some giant ass producing tons of shit from tons of perfectly fine food.
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