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Industry Rumors: Coronavirus can be final blow for camera industry
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  • Year to Date Sales compared to Jan-April 2019:

    • DSLR Units : 754K, -47% YTD
    • DSLR Shipped Value: ¥32.3 billion -45%
    • Mirrorless Units: 720K , -36%
    • Mirrorless Shipped Value: ¥50.4 billion -40%
    • Compact Units: 1.16m -47%
    • Compact Shipped Value: ¥22.9 billion -44%
    • Lenses for smaller than 35mm Units: 1.68 million, -41%
    • Lenses for smaller than 35mm Shipped Value: ¥23.9 billion, -40%
    • Lenses for 35mm and larger Units: 978K, -40%
    • Lenses for 35mm and larger Shipped Value: ¥48 billion, -39%
  • As Olympus is finally down, two more brands are preparing to bite the dust.

    It is interesting that very careful approach to economy shoudown and small number of cases in Japan actually saved most manufacturers.

    I expect that companies will begin falling during big second wave in Japan as camera sales will drop around 98-99% compared to year before in October and November.

  • and nikon ? I fear if nikon dies, it'll take the whole camera market with them. It's too symbolic. Much more so than even olympus.

  • New round of private talks and rumors from big resellers

    Present plans is that since September cameras sales are expected to drop 95% YoY in EU, 90% YoY in US, and sales in Asia will worsten significantly up to 85% YoY drop.

    Resellers think that R5 from Canon will be extreme failure after initial surge of sales (at list till 2020 end). As major target base of video shooters is barely alive themselfs.

    In case of strong second wave from 2 up to 4 major brands will restructure their business not waiting for 2020 end. In case it will be some big solution found we can see destruiction of only 2 of remaining brands (more correct to day - camera departments) and it will happen in 2021.

  • With the market shrinking at such speed, companies are at great risk of falling into a fixed-costs crisis.

    Some analysts believe the entire industry will collapse unless companies undertake major reforms, like splitting design and development from manufacturing, and consolidating production.

    The impact of Olympus’ decision to quit the camera business and discard 84 years’ worth of experience, may spread.

  • CIS Market state



    800 x 433 - 47K
    800 x 415 - 60K
  • Britain has announced a £500m ($647m) fund to help television and film companies restart productions, after companies complained they were unable to get insurance because of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Shoots shut down abruptly in March as Covid-19 spread and the government imposed a lockdown. As filmmakers try to get back to work, they are finding some insurers have stopped providing the Covid-19 coverage they need to secure financing.

    The government said the insurance fund will be available to all productions made by companies where at least half the production budget is spent in the UK, and is estimated to cover more than 70% of the film and TV production market.

    Printing money is easy, it is hard to live with condequences.

  • Unless they will receive Something at the expense of something. Unless that something is not worth the risk.

  • Big online US retailer estimation for cameras and acessories sales during Augist-October period

    Positive scenery (payments to individuals stay on current levels, evictions not enforced, medium covid cases)

    • cameras - 20-35% from year before
    • lenses - 10-25% from year before
    • acessories - 35-40% from year before

    Realistic scenery (payments to individuals reduced by around half, some evictions allowed, more covid cases)

    • cameras - 10-25% from year before
    • lenses - 10-15% from year before
    • acessories - 15-20% from year before

    Bad scenery (payments to individuals slmost stopped, massive evictions, big number of covid cases)

    • cameras - 5-10% from year before
    • lenses - 5-7% from year before
    • acessories - 5-10% from year before
  • The Best Thing for the Camera Industry Is for Nikon to Exit

  • 2021 industry prediction

    Made after few talks.

    Sony, Canon and Nikon

    • 2 entry level cameras introduction per company per year, one or both will be just body rehash ell else will be same
    • Top of the line camera for some of them, can even feature new LSI
    • Biggest hit will be in the middle. It'll be only one camera usually per year, sometimes even none, prices will go up significantly
    • Only one company expect new LSI within next 12 months, life of many main chips will be up to next 4 years


    • Company is done and behaving like Olympus did, rehashing old guts in new bodies
    • Unable to make any new LSI (main chip)
    • Can't secure sensors for good quote from Sony, their cost is now always much worse compared to others
    • Lenses will be mostly rebranded things, some even made by Chinese manufacturers (and around 2x-3x price premium)
    • Last third party lens manufacturers will left the mount


    • You'll see how the utilization press is "optimizing" the remains
    • Company now has big stock of unsold lenses (some as old as 4-5 years)
    • Also rumors are that lot of bodies now pile up in storage units in US and EU (despite being marked as sold long ago)
    • Sold part will cease any operations (except makign and designign lenses for others) in mid 2021


    • Can be biggest hit company in late 2020 and 2021
    • In case of big second wave imaging unit will be almost destroyed
    • L mount lineup and lenses can be pulled silently, no announcement will be made, people talk about early 2021
    • Panasonic still has 2 interesting m43 bodies almost ready, but it will be hard to make it all final and sell good
    • Even in worst scenario m43 lenses manufacturing won't stop until late 2021
    • Sales can drop as much as 10 times in fall of 2021 compared to fall of 2019
  • With the market shrinking at such speed, companies are at great risk of falling into a fixed-costs crisis. Some analysts believe the entire industry will collapse unless companies undertake major reforms, like splitting design and development from manufacturing, and consolidating production.

    The impact of Olympus’ decision to quit the camera business and discard 84 years’ worth of experience, may spread.

  • One thing he does not tell much is state of his NY business (as photo businesses jobs in NY now almost do not exist), as it can be sole reason of sales and absolutely not mirrorless related at all.

  • Japan’s Shinzo Abe said he was resigning the post of prime minister and head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party

    It can have dramatic consequences for camera companies who literally sucked government tit for years.

    Rumors are that new prime minister will side with opinion that big round of bankruptcies and cleansing is required.

  • Future of photos cameras press:

  • Small rumors from Japan

    Panasonic and Nikon will change the way their FF bodies and expensive lenses are assembled.
    Due to very low amount of FF bodies sold both companies will be used less specialized personnel where each is performing much more operations.
    Space used on factories for both companies is expected to fall as much as 3-4 times towards February 2021.

  • Situation is bad


    Reality is much more bleak than chart as up to 60% of all cameras shipped are put into storage with hopes to sell with deep discount during 2021.

    800 x 582 - 75K
  • Most movie theaters in the US can eventually close down permanently because of this pandemic.

    Situation is very bad, most won't make it past March.

  • It is very interesting to see how greedy camera companies became in the last 10 months.

    And how tight they now control all the media and feedback. One wrong word, one wrong toned video - and the guy is out of the loop.

    This is words I got from two independent people working in camera companies.

    Add here that 40% of other leading reviewers use 10-15 Amazon accounts to get body and return body to Amazon after review, and you will get the picture. Amazon, btw started to track such people.

  • Wedding business disaster

    With second wave lot of small companies and individuals will need to find some other jobs to survive, around 25% already closed their doors, but second wave can push out of business another 60% with UK, France and Germany planning to prohibit big official weddings at least until June 2021.

    In US and EU wedding guys and related companies buy as much as 15-20% of some specific camera bodies, lenses, rigs, stabilizers.

  • Nikon dealers in Europe received notifications that the following products are already discontinued and cannot be ordered:

    • Nikon D5
    • Nikon SB-300
    • Nikon F6
    • Nikkor Ai-S 50mm f/1.2
    • Nikkor 24mm f/2.8

    Another big batch of lenses and bodies will stop to be made since January (up to 50 SKUs total).

  • Snappr wants to be the go-to service for business to get fast, easy access to photographers at rates as low as $89 per session. The company operates like a mix of Uber and ThumbTack, with on-demand access to creatives in 200 metropolitan areas, and could be coming to a city near you.

    Meet your new dream work where you'll need second work to get enough to eat in McDonalds.