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Charts: Our future
  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    image

    It'll be just slightly more sharp declines compared to picture.

  • 5 Replies sorted by
  • vicharrisvicharris

    Seems about right.

  • neokooneokoo

    So what does this mean for life in different areas of the world and different cultures? Will "simple living" rural peoples like Amish actually end up better off than people in large cities reliant on industrial systems?

    BTW, would be interesting to see charts with curves for "human compassion", "warlike attitudes", "chance of totalitarian politics" and so on. They can be sort-of guessed from resource charts, but nevertheless would be interesting to see those projections…

  • svartsvart

    However, this chart is based in Ricardian Fallacy.. It assumes that the non-renewable resources that are used are always going to be the same, and that the usage will only rise. It doesn't take into account that technology in food or energy production grows logarithmically or that usage of resources changes over time as new technology develops. This doesn't even take into account the basic Ludic fallacy that could be applied to this type of data..

    The fact is that it's a chart based on guessing by those who have negative attitudes who intend to change their feared outcome by imposing their fear in charts intended to look official and knowledgeable.

    Howwever, there have been a number of times in the last century where "population bombs" were expected to go off and the world would run out of food and resources, which of course, never happened.

    http://english.lasindias.com/five-argumentative-fallacies-and-one-methodological-fallacy-without-which-degrowth-cannot-stand/

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    It assumes that the non-renewable resources that are used are always going to be the same, and that the usage will only rise. It doesn't take into account that technology in food or energy production grows logarithmically or that usage of resources changes over time as new technology develops.

    It is based on simple and true assumtion that resources are becoming harder to get and that fewer of them are remaining.

    I also did not get "technology in food or energy production grows logarithmically", does it mean that it grows too slow now or what?

    This chart is based on quite positive attitude. I, for example, have much more negative one. And think that we won't not make it so far and so smooth as this chart shows.

  • lolololo

    @Vitaliy_Kiselev could you please give the source of this chart, i would like to know more

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