The International Energy Agency (IEA), the world's premier source of energy information, has published a 287-page report, "The Role of Essential Minerals in the Transition to Clean Energy." In short - "The transition to clean energy: not very soon, very difficult and not very clean."

The IEA has collected a wealth of data on a fundamental and still largely ignored aspect of the energy transition. It turns out that this requires a mining industry and infrastructure that doesn't exist. Wind, solar and battery technologies are built from a gigantic amount of "minerals for generating and transporting energy" that need to be mined and processed. The IEA estimates that with the global energy transition, demand for key minerals such as lithium, graphite, nickel and rare earth metals will skyrocket, increasing by 4,200%, 2,500%, 1,900% and 700%, respectively, by 2040.

There is no physical capacity to meet this demand. As noted by the IEA, there are no even rough plans for the financing and construction of the necessary mines and processing plants. The declared energy transition is completely undesirable. If it begins to be implemented in quantities dictated by the goals of the energy transition, the world will face not only serious environmental, economic and social problems, but also geopolitical risks.

The IEA warns of a fundamental fact that advocates of the transition never mention: Clean energy machines use far more important minerals than conventional energy machines. "A conventional electric vehicle requires six times more mineral resources than a conventional car, and an onshore wind turbine requires nine times more mineral resources than a gas-fired power plant," the report said. In 2010, the average amount of minerals required for a new block of generating capacity increased by 50%, as the share of renewable energy sources increased. It's just so that the share of wind and sun in the world's electricity is only 10%.

The IEA notes that this will be "a transition from an energy-intensive to a material-intensive energy system." This means eliminating liquids and gases, the extraction and transportation of which leaves a very light ecological footprint on land and is transported easily, cheaply and efficiently to mines with a large mining area, energy-intensive transportation of huge quantities of rocks and other solid materials, as well as subsequent chemical processing. and enrichment.

Ramping up production cannot happen overnight. The IEA notes: "On average, it takes more than 16 years to complete mining projects from paper to first production." If you start tomorrow, the production of energy transfer equipment will not begin until after 2035. This is a major challenge for the Green Elves' plan to achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035.

The global mining boom, which will leave behind all sorts of environmental consequences, will require a cyclopean amount of water, and this is when about half of the world's lithium and copper production comes from areas with high water scarcity. To this should be added the pollution of the environment by drainage waters from mines, discharge of waste water after enrichment and storage of sludge.

IEA data show that mining expansion will take place mainly in countries with "poor corporate governance", where "corruption and bribery pose serious risks."

The IEA has pointed the US to the large geopolitical risks of the energy transition. For example, today the oil and gas market is characterized by a wide diversification of supply. The three largest manufacturers, including the United States, account for less than half of the world's supply. But after the energy transition, there will be a situation when the world will have three leading producers of three key components of "green" energy, which control more than 80% of world supplies.

https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions