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What do we know about the novel coronavirus?
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  • @Vitaliy....France is making the same mistakes. Outcome will be bad.

  • @kurth

    If you don't test - numbers will be good.

    Recent US numbers also is result of started wider testing.

  • 70% get the aggressive form.... ...maybe this is one explanation of how people get reinfected

  • Is trump the dumbest leader since the middle ages....probably thinks Nero was a character in Matrix ....

  • So far, the deaths are co-related to old age, inbreeding, cold weather, and health of lungs i.e. smoking, pollution.

    I still maintain that you are better off on the beach, with a steam inhaler with Vicks, as well as turmeric with olive oil on a daily basis.

    To check for fibrosis of lungs, take a deep breath in, hold to the count of 10. If you can do that without coughing, you are fine.

  • @zcream

    As far as I can understand main issue here is that medicine is not prepared to tread patients properly with such lungs damage. Especially issue is lack of oxygen.

  • @zcream...indeed, if a person can't hold their breath for 10 seconds, they are indeed screwed, but they could have straight pneumonia as well. But what exactly do you mean by "inbreeding" ? Like when two sibling have sex, will they die sooner ? And I think we'll know soon enough if hot weather affects contagiousness. Appears that Africa is demonstrating this, but NY City in July should be the real test. I think you're better off not getting the virus, myself.

  • @kurth

    Inbreeding leads to higher rates of congenital disorders, and I do believe also has issues with immune system. In public hospitals in india, there are much higher rates of access by islamic persons.

    I think the virus will hit islamic nations badly.

  • The press is publishing news saying the climate will keep the virus from spreading here in Brasil, and couple of abstract good minded things from opinion, not data, from "specialists" ("I think", "I hope", "I guess").

    So I run a quick harsh simulation using the data from spanish flu in 1918 São Paulo. Just take the exceding number of deaths in 1918, put it agains population in 1920 (other census was from 1900) and used a hipotesized spread of 60% population. Got 2% lethality vs 4% the best case for world lethality. Obviously it's not serious simulation.

    Even so, that would be 250.000 deaths today in one city alone.

    And it doesn't account for far greater population density, far riskier urban infrastructure to low income people (much closer houses in favelas and sanitary problems) and the far increased movement of people in transportation packed to the windows.

    Today a man that was in Italy was confirmed as positive case near where I live. The man was then isolated. After living freely for three weeks in Brasil, since return from exposition, only after test came positive.

  • @RoadsidePicnic...if Brasil medical infrastructure is similar to Mexico, I'm guessing there's hundreds of undiagnosed cases for every one they discover. At hospital level it's 50% incompetence. At govt level it's all smoke and mirrors. Yeah...let's hope for the hot weather theory.

  • @Zcream ....really ? you think inbreeding is a big factor , like old age, or smoking for 50 years ? Whoa....besides the absolute lack of logic, your theory exhibits extreme racism. Have you ever traveled in India or Muslim countries ? I think I'll stay away from that tumeric shit ! Looks like it can really screw with a persons mind.

  • the John Hopkins online active coronavirus map no longer shows location by city...only by state. The obfuscation begins.... that bill gates conference, event 201 pandemic coronavirus simulation, they spoke about controlling all media.

  • @kurth I am typing this from Mumbai, india. I suggest reading a bit..

    Also, while I am not muslim, the paper I linked to in my previous post is written by a muslim doctor. Most nurses who work in the middle East are of Indian origin, as well as filipino among others. This statement has been made by people who have lived in that region.

  • So, related to your previous statement,

    .so you think inbreeding is a big factor , like old age, or smoking for 50 years ?

    I think inbreeding is as important as old age or smoking in death due to pandemic. Within islamic groups you have between 50-90% of multi generation inbreeding. You can look for these numbers yourself.

  • @Zcream...ok....well... I still think your theory is racist. No one doubts inbreeding can cause extreme health issues, but saying that "islamic groups" have 50-90% inbreeding, and with India having serious political issues between Hindu and Muslims, I think your pov is tainted. Of course since man lived in caves and tribes defended themselves, inbreeding happened. So I'd suppose it's more of a tribal issue rather than a religious issue. Any place that is still tribal would see more inbreeding. How's India doing on that tribal count ? And your theory that inbreeding is as important as age or the other 99.99% of health issues is absurd.

  • Right. Race, Islam,tribalism. 3 completely different things. Islam is a religion, tribe is usually related to a linguistic identity, racism originates from the biblical division due to believers, non- believers as well as the story of the curse of ham and mark of Cain mapped to creationism. Since you did not bother to read, here is an explanation of the link between the immune system and inbreeding.

    The biggest damage caused by inbreeding is an inevitable reduction in the effectiveness of the immune system. A mammal's immune system is an amazing, intricate, system designed to fight off every potential foreign invader. It is absolutely dependent on genetic diversity. When an animal has identical copies of its immune system genes, the immune system becomes limited in its ability to ward off disease. The end result is an animal that can fight off some diseases very well, but is extremely susceptible to others. This phenomenon is seen in both laboratory situations (there are lists for every inbred strain of mice of what diseases they can resist, and what ones they can't) and in the field in endangered species. One set of genes whose function is critical for an animal to be able to fight off the variety of diseases that they may be exposed to is the MHC (major histocompatibility complex) genes. These are the genes that mark virtually all of an animals body cells to help the body's immune system distinguish itself from foreign invaders such as bacteria or viruses. Aside from marking a body cell as "self" these genes provide another essential function. They bind to, and display any foreign molecule (or antigen) to the immune system. This antigen presentation is necessary for the immune system cells to see and respond to an invader. Unfortunately, every MHC protein can only bind to and/or display a selection of antigens. Fortunately we mammals have a number of MHC genes and many versions (or alleles) of each of these genes. These genes are critical for immune system to differentiate yourself from foreign objects, and for displaying foreign antigens to your immune system. Diversity in these genes is probably essential for a species to survive the variety of disease causing organisms that they may be exposed to. Let's use a simplified example here. Assume that there are 2 MHC genes, and each has 5 alleles. This can produce a total of 225 different genotypes! AND in fact, in humans there are at least 9 separate MHC class I genes and a bunch more class II genes let alone class III. So far in the 3 most easily studied class I genes, one has 37 alleles, another has 59 alleles and the third 111 alleles discovered so far! This leads to a huge diversity of immune system capabilities in the population as a whole (Kuby, Janis "Immunology" 3rd edition 1997 W.H.Freeman , NY) This huge variety allows our body cells to respond to a huge variety of antigens, and thus to be able to fight off a wide variety of diseases. An additional benefit of this system is that with the huge variety of MHC genes, chances are that in a given family, mom has one set of genes and alleles, dad a completely different set, and that all the kids each have a unique combination. This way, if a given disease manages to circumvent one family memberís immune system, it may not be able to do so with the other family members. When an animal is highly inbred, the number of these variations drops dramatically. In our original simplified case of two genes with 5 alleles each, a highly inbred animal would be homozygous for both genes and would make only two MHC molecules. To make matters worse, all of the animals in the inbred group have the same two, so if one animal can't respond to a disease immunologically, none of them can!

  • Finally inbreeding and tribalism is not the same thing. There is no other group that has first cousin and step sibling marriage as Islam does. Assuming you have Anglo heritage, I have linked to articles not from people who you may distrust from india.

    The pjmedia article is from a a Christian blog but they have linked to references so you !ay read about it.

    I won't comment on this anymore but I hope everyone does well during the epidemic.

  • @Zcream...Don't go away. Defend your case. First, as already mentioned, no one would doubt inbreeding causes serious health issues. That's not the issue. The question it a factor in the spread and risk of coronavirus. As big a risk as old age and smoking, according to your post. Tribalism is far more defined by geographical location than language. Different tribes can share the same language but are defined by their location. Their locale isolation would determine how much inbreeding would occur. Actually I think it was Levi-Strauss that determined that most tribes have marriage customs that choose partners from outside tribes to avoid inbreeding. I read the nytimes article...but why does SA only have 20 cases ? ...and Indonesia...27 cases ? And why hasn't inbreeding been mentioned in any medial research article on the virus ? I'd suppose, by your theory, that those Italians are pesky inbreeders as well ?

  • Spread of coronavirus is not due to inbreeding, I talked of the death rate. Death rate is due to increased ACE2 receptors due to smoking, pre-existing lung disease, age AND inbreeding.

    The no. of cases is related to detection rates, not actual death. We wont know for a year or two how many people actually died. Same as with SARS.

    I never suggested that there was inbreeding in Italy.

    You are mixing up two separate issues - spread of the disease and the death rate. Hence your statement

    .is it a factor in the spread and risk of coronavirus

    and my answer

    I think inbreeding is as important as old age or smoking in death due to pandemic.

  • On a related issue, last year saw abnormally large numbers of deaths due to flu.

    Was the corona virus already in the US last year ? Both Covid-19 and influenza cause deaths due to internal sepsis leading to organ failure - due to cytokine storms. Perhaps when we exhume these bodies we may find the virus hit us earlier than we thought, just that no one was tested.