Things are bad

China produced 263.75 million tonnes of coal in May, sliding 15.5% year on year, data from the National Bureau of Statistic (NBS) showed on June 13.

That dipped 1.6% on month, compared with the decline of 8.77% in April, data showed.

China’s raw coal output stood at 1.34 billion tonnes over January-May, dropping 8.4% from the year prior, compared with the decline of 6.8% in January-April.

Older useful topic - http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/10581/energy-issues-in-china/p1

Does it mean what Chinese cheap product won't be so cheap?

Yes, and in long term it can even mean that it won't be any Chinese products for export.

And this is that happens if Chinese coal production starts to fall

The country's National Energy Administration is suspending 85 planned or in-progress coal power plants -- not because they're threats to the environment and public health (which they are), but because they don't fit in with China's latest Five Year Plan. It's targeting a coal capacity limit of 1,100GW, but the plants would have brought it to 1,250GW.

And now they tell us that they care for people health, they don't, just peak coal passed.

From what I read (including your article at the top) it's demand for coal that has peaked, not supply. Production has decreased in China because there was a general economic slowdown from previous over-stimulation. For example, in the previous years, Chinese firms used a lot of coal to make a lot of steel at a loss, now it's sitting waiting to be used and the steel plants are running at lower capacity. With Beijing having more and more days of unbreathable air each year, the Chinese government is under some pressure to reduce pollution. Also, China seeks to bolster their geopolitical image and they aren't going to do it on human rights, so they're working on environment. PRC has a lot of self-made problems to address in the next few years, but a lack of energy isn't one of them.

Your curve charts show the cost of servicing debt, not cost of extraction. Between 2007 and 2014 mining companies took on a lot more debt to stay in operation while resource prices were low due to global economic meltdown. They are loaded down with debt but not because their costs to extract have risen. Instead, it's due to rapidly lowering demand and built up stockpiles that depress the price. In fact, the extraction price may have actually gone down due to new technology.

In the US, coal extraction dropped 10.3% in 2015 but coal consumption dropped 13.1% and as a result US stockpiles of coal rose 20.6% to 238.8 million short tons or 3.5 months-worth of current US consumption. Employment at US coal mines dropped 12.0% during this period indicating that productivity increased during that time. At the 2015 consumption rate of 798 million short tons, the US estimated recoverable reserves (the amount that could be mined using only present technology) of 255.8 billion short tons would last 320 years.

In the US at least, coal production is at its lowest levels since 1986, but is still outstripping consumption and leading to the highest year-end stockpiles ever recorded.

http://www.eia.gov/coal/annual/ http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves

I mention debt because the first two charts you posted were about debt - and they look so terrible because debt shot up in that period not because of rising costs to extract coal.

Yes, there are debt problems in China. Also low transparency in reporting, which is why I used US figures with better reporting. Coal is a transportable material and there are lots of ships going back to China from the US with empty holds, so if China really were running out of coal, they could always buy from the US. (Currently, they buy a good quantity of the coal used for smelting steel, not much of the coal used to produce energy.)

Where does the lowering demand for coal come from? I believe it is: 1) lower cost petroleum, 2) low cost of steel and other products requiring coal for production due to high stockpiles, 3) environmental regulations/restrictions on coal burning for energy.

I don't think we're reading the shale oil and gas charts the same. To me they show a pretty regular pattern of new wells peaking within a year or so but then generating a fairly predictable tail pattern. Output was higher in 2011-14 most likely due to more wells being drilled while oil prices were quite high. With lower prices in 2015-16, fewer new wells were drilled--companies couldn't afford it in the US where most need >$45/barrel to break even. 2017-18 will probably look more like 2011-12 if the price of oil continues to increase.

My point here is, "Peak coal" refers to a peak in the demand for coal, not the supply.

U.S. fossil fuel production fell 7% from 2015 to 2016. Most of this decline was from coal production, which decreased 18% and fell to its lowest level since 1978. Relatively low natural gas prices, especially in the first half of 2016, and relatively flat electricity demand contributed to the decline in coal production. Petroleum and natural gas production also declined, falling 5% and 2%, respectively, as prices for both fuels were below their respective 2015 levels.

After declining slightly in 2015, U.S. renewable energy production increased 7% in 2016. Wind energy made up almost half the increase in renewable production, while solar energy accounted for nearly a quarter. Both fuels saw substantial electricity generating capacity additions in 2015 and 2016.

And suddenly...

China is stepping up its push into clean power with a revised renewable energy target. The nation is now aiming for renewables to account for at least 35 percent of energy consumption by 2030, whereas its previous target only stipulated "non-fossil fuels" making up 20 percent of energy use within the same time frame.

The new plan, called the Renewable Portfolio Standard, aims to tackle the country's soaring pollution levels by reducing its reliance on coal.

Poor journalist do not understand that you can reach 35% not only rising renewable energy, but by dropping other energy consumption, and this is that is happening fast.

China kicked off its annual parliamentary meeting, the National People’s Congress, on Tuesday where Premier Li Keqiang said the country must be prepared for a “tough struggle” as it faces a “grave and more complicated environment.”

Official economic growth target this year, he said, will be 6.0 to 6.5 percent, lower than the growth of 6.6 percent in 2018, the slowest pace since 1990.

And consequences follow. This is only small part, more going on during this year.

China is forced to turn back, even as they don't have enough domestic coal already

Across the country, 148 gigawatts of coal-fired plants are either being built or are about to begin construction, according to a report from Global Energy Monitor, a non-profit group that monitors coal stations. The current capacity of the entire EU coal fleet is 149 GW.

Last year, China's net additions to its coal fleet were 25.5 GW, while the rest of the world saw a net decline of 2.8 GW as more coal plants were closed than were built.

While the rest of the world has been largely reducing coal-powered capacity over the past two years, China is building so much new coal power that it more than offsets the decline elsewhere.

And it is good reason for it- energy costs are much lower.

But the amount of generation added each year drops.

While Xi is making grandiose pronouncements about a 'green revolution' - the backdrop is that in the first half of 2020, China approved 23 gigawatts-worth of new coal power projects, which is more than the previous two years combined according to the report, citing San Francisco-based environmental NGO, Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

"A new fleet of coal plants is in direct contradiction with China's pledge to peak emissions before 2030," said Lauri Myllyvirta, China analyst at Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

Well, normal people realized that without coal it is zero advantage as green energy is very low quality thing and very expensive.