US: Enjoy It While It Lasts

Vitaliy_Kiselev

We expect a moderate slowdown in the beginning of next year, as two small policy shocks—another debt downgrade and fiscal tightening—hit the economy. The “not-so-super” Deficit Commission is very unlikely to come up with a credible deficit-reduction plan.
The committee is more divided than the overall Congress. Since the fall-back plan is sharp cuts in discretionary spending, the whole point of the Committee is to put taxes and entitlements on the table.
However, all the Republican members have signed the Norquist “no taxes” pledge and with taxes off the table it is hard to imagine the liberal Democrats on the Committee agreeing to significant entitlement cuts.
The credit rating agencies have strongly suggested that further rating cuts are likely if Congress does not come up with a credible long-run plan. Hence, we expect at least one credit downgrade in late November or early December when the super Committee crashes.

Via: http://www.businessinsider.com/huge-prediction-from-bofa-another-us-debt-downgrade-is-coming-in-just-a-few-weeks-2011-10

cosimo_bullo

Ever hopeful, Vitaliy... but I'd think we have more than a few more years left, the hopes of some notwithstanding.

In fact, even though it is very ugly to see, our system does work and happens in the open to a large extent. Say what you will about the Tea Partiers, but they brought attention to a problem that must be addresses, and will be, in a thousand painful cuts.

Vitaliy, if it's not too much to ask, how would you compare the way the US deals with these big issues compared with your dear mother nation? How are you doing things better, how worse. Flood your light out just a bit.

One more thing. Norquist's time has just about run its corse... each week a new republican rebukes him, so there's clearly a message coming from the top of the RNC.

Vitaliy_Kiselev

>Flood your light out just a bit.

I am not talking about Russia here. Period.

cosimo_bullo

One must ask, from time to time, why not?

Here are a couple of articles that show the first cracks in Norquist's armor (going after the top repulican - Cain - a Tea Party favorite, is not engendering Norquist to the man who may well be their nominee)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/afternoon-fix-grover-norquist-calls-9-9-9-very-dangerous/2011/10/17/gIQA79aLsL_blog.html

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/oct/04/news/la-pn-norquist-paralyzing-congress-20111004

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2011/10/17/the-supercommittee-and-the-attempted-slandering-of-grover-norquist/

Vitaliy_Kiselev

>One must ask, from time to time, why not?

Just consider this as as nature law of this place.

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