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Eight Energy Myths
  • Myth 1. The fact that oil producers are talking about wanting to export crude oil means that the US has more than enough crude oil for its own needs.

    The real story is that producers want to sell their crude oil at as high a price as possible. If they have a choice of refineries A, B, and C in this country to sell their crude oil to, the maximum amount they can receive for their oil is limited by the price the price these refineries are paying, less the cost of shipping the oil to these refineries.

    If it suddenly becomes possible to sell crude oil to refineries elsewhere, the possibility arises that a higher price will be available in another country.

    Myth 2. The economy doesn’t really need very much energy.

    We humans need food of the right type, to provide us with the energy we need to carry out our activities. The economy is very similar: it needs energy of the right types to carry out its activities.

    Myth 3. We can easily transition to renewables.

    In total, the biofuels category without all of these modern additions might be close to the amount available in 1820. Population now is roughly seven times as large, suggesting only one-seventh as much energy per capita. Of course, in 1820 the amount of wood used led to significant deforestation, so even this level of biofuel use was not ideal. And there would be the additional detail of transporting wood to markets. Back in 1820, we had horses for transport, but we would not have enough horses for this purpose today.

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    Myth 4. Population isn’t related to energy availability.

    If we compare two charts above, we see that the surge in population that took place immediately after World War II coincided with the period that per-capita energy use was ramping up rapidly. The increased affluence of the 1950s (fueled by low oil prices and increased ability to buy goods using oil) allowed parents to have more children. Better sanitation and innovations such as antibiotics (made possible by fossil fuels) also allowed more of these children to live to maturity.

    Myth 5. It is easy to substitute one type of energy for another.

    Any changeover from one type of energy to another is likely to be slow and expensive, if it can be accomplished at all.

    One major issue is the fact that different types of energy have very different uses.

    Myth 6. Oil will “run out” because it is limited in supply and non-renewable.

    This myth is actually closer to the truth than the other myths. The situation is a little different from “running out,” however. The real situation is that oil limits are likely to disrupt the economy in various ways. This economic disruption is likely to be what leads to an abrupt drop in oil supply.

    Myth 7. Oil supply will start depleting when the supply is 50% exhausted. We can therefore expect a long, slow decline in fossil fuel use.

    It is based on what I believe is an incorrect reading of the writings of M. King Hubbert. Hubbert is a geologist and physicist who foretold a decline of US oil production, and eventually world production, in various documents, including Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, published in 1956. Hubbert observed that under certain circumstances, the production of various fossil fuels tends to follow a rather symmetric curve.

    A major reason that this type of forecast is wrong is because it is based on a scenario in which some other type of energy supply was able to be ramped up, before oil supply started to decline.

    Myth 8. Renewable energy is available in essentially unlimited supply.

    The issue with all types of energy supply, from fossil fuels, to nuclear (based on uranium), to geothermal, to hydroelectric, to wind and solar, is diminishing returns. At some point, the cost of producing energy becomes less efficient, and because of this, the cost of production begins to rise.

    Part of the problem with so-called renewables is that they are made of minerals, and these minerals are subject to the same depletion issues as other minerals.

    http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/04/23/eight-energy-myths-explained/

  • 11 Replies sorted by
  • Are these really myths though? I wasn't aware many people believe these 8 things.

    Myth 6. Oil will “run out” because it is limited in supply and non-renewable. comment: I've looked in to this a bit, from what I read, if the shot callers and oil companies and/or OPEC really do know how much oil remains, they don't seem particularly interested in telling anyone. Either they don't know or know and don't want to say.

  • @brianl

    Many believe :-) I also suggest to click on link and read full version.

    Myth 6 is not about depletion it is about simple fact that issues will start long before that due to economics restrictions.

  • In the past, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions was due to an economic downturn. That's because economic growth is often linked to increased energy use, which in turn increases emissions. The "decoupling" of the economy and carbon emissions was likely the result of efforts by energy companies to fight climate change, the IEA says.

    Last year, global carbon monoxide emissions reached 32.3 billion metric tons — an amount equal to 2013's levels. During the 40 years the IEA has been collecting data, there have only been three other periods of time when atmospheric CO2 levels did not rise: in the early 1980s, 1992, and 2009. However, these years were also associated with global economic instability, and in 2014, the global economy grew by three percent, according to the IEA.

    Two paragraphs of idiotic statements and propaganda. Issue is that they try to compare GDP (very easy to mangle number, very inaccurate) and carbon emissions (and this is just estimates, sometimes very inaccurate). It could be other thing if they measured actual manufacturing (not in the terms of price, but in volume of specific basic goods) and resulting pollution (using actual measurement devices around the world and near manufacturing sites).

    Worse thing is this focus on CO2 (reminds of ozone depletion hoax). As main issue now is increasing use of coal and quick move to low quality coal (as good coal ends fast) with quick rise in pollution levels.

  • I've never understood how to be so scared about CO2. Out of all the molecules produced as byproducts from industry etc, it has got to be one of, if not THE, most beningn. Out of all the compounds resulting from combustion, CO2 and H2O are the ONLY perfectly harmless molecules to humans, and yet we are supposed to focus on this.

    With todays weird CO2 focus, media could probably destroy an invention like 100% effective combustion engine because it would release more CO2 instead of less CO2 + toxic compounds.

  • I've never understood how to be so scared about CO2.

    I think because it is not risky, do not scare people much and is profitable.

    Media usually intuitively find high margin areas (more profit for them). Look at smartphones - around 90% of all media coverage goes ones that have highest margins.

  • We may or may not kill ourselves via AGW, but there's not anything humans are going to do to mitigate it. All this GW hysteria just seems like a lot of people wanting to get money/political power from the cottage industry that it created.

  • I was not aware of all of this, thank you for sharing this knowledge and killing some myths. I'm not really into energy, but I pay a close eye on ITER project, I really pray it works.

  • I have a friend in Texas who worked for many years in the oil industry (now retired). He believed that there actually was no such thing as "peak oil." The idea that he and many of his work associates believed is that the earth actively produces crude and "peak oil" is a scare tactic to keep prices artificially inflated. I'm not a geologist and can't say either way, but it's interesting to hear that from someone inside the industry.

  • The idea that he and many of his work associates believed is that the earth actively produces crude and "peak oil" is a scare tactic to keep prices artificially inflated. I'm not a geologist and can't say either way, but it's interesting to hear that from someone inside the industry.

    It is big number of idiots around the world :-) I suggest to start from popular articles on oil origination theories (here you already will see that even big admirers of recuperating oil will provide such slow speeds of this process that you will be shocked). After this you can check charts and links here. And after it, if not enough go for serious books.

    To be short - peak conventional oil already happened, peak overall will be quite soon, and results (as you need to look at energy per capita, check recent posts) are already visible by naked eye.

  • "Myth 8. Renewable energy is available in essentially unlimited supply.

    The issue with all types of energy supply, from fossil fuels, to nuclear (based on uranium), to geothermal, to hydroelectric, to wind and solar, is diminishing returns. At some point, the cost of producing energy becomes less efficient, and because of this, the cost of production begins to rise.

    Part of the problem with so-called renewables is that they are made of minerals, and these minerals are subject to the same depletion issues as other minerals."

    What "minerals" is wind power made out of? The turbines and platforms necessary to harness wind power are standard minerals used in all turbines for all purposes. The wind itself has no "minerals" need either in raw materials or in the production process. It's the cleanest energy source there is - and OFFSHORE wind farms that are floating on platforms out in the sea are a very efficient source of energy production, with minimal environmental impact. There is a lot - LOT of power available from wind across SEAS and OCEANS and the wind there is much more consistent and strong than any wind power on land.

    Overall, I am not very impressed by this list - seems a lot of assertions and many mistakes and things being overlooked or misunderstood (wind power and "minerals" is just one).

  • What "minerals" is wind power made out of? The turbines and platforms necessary to harness wind power are standard minerals used in all turbines for all purposes.

    Click and read full version to understand. Issue is with "turbines and platforms necessary to harness wind power are standard minerals". As you need actual non renewable resources to make wind turbines, transport them on site, make all replacements, properly process parts or whole systems that are at the end of their life.