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US: Unemployment
  • Overage unemployment is 9.1% (I won't go here how funny it is calculated).
    16.7% blacks (afro-american is politcorrect term) are officially unemployed, setting new record for last 30 years.
    Young black unempoyment is 46.5%.

    More details at:
    http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm
  • 138 Replies sorted by
  • Ha ....it's all good man. You guys bring out the nerd in me.. lol.
  • @cosimo_bullo
    @Ian_T

    I blame it on all my downtime while things render at work... nothing much to do but visit the forums compulsively and write lengthy responses to stuff.

    :)
  • Word!! ;-) jk
  • Lord, bwhitz, I wish you and brianluce could just go have a couple beers and have this stuff out. Both: it's coming off as a broken record here.
  • "Words are what we use to communicate with each other. Great care is taken in our culture to maintain a reasonable and consistent standard for word meanings"

    Yes, but WHY words. What do they imply? Where did they come. Stop looking at the WHAT and look more towards the WHY... then you'll kind of get where I'm coming from. This is also where the answers and real definitions come from... the existential ones, not our societal ones.

    "The metaphysical stuff above is probably about as far OT as we need to take this discussion."

    Metaphysics is never off topic for any discussion... it applies to EVERYTHING! :) This is where the answers start! The other ones are just putting wallpaper over the patchwork...
  • @bwhitz
    Definitions are the meaning of words. Words are what we use to communicate with each other. Great care is taken in our culture to maintain a reasonable and consistent standard for word meanings. When you create your own definitions, as you did with Economy means a rating system, communication becomes difficult or impossible. Words mean what words mean. It has nothing to do with cognitive dissonance.
    The metaphysical stuff above is probably about as far OT as we need to take this discussion.
  • @brianluce "Okay bwhitz, if you say so. Makes perfect sense. You should consider authoring a dictionary so you can explain to the world the real meaning of words, because it looks like most of us got it all wrong on account of those mean politicians and the liberal media. "

    Again. Semantics, semantics, semantics... I'm talking about WHAT IS the economy. What is the SCIENCE and PHILOSOPHY behind it. Why did human kind create such as system? WHY is there an economy? If those questions are answered, then the real solutions become obvious. If you're just basing solutions and ideas on definitions, then you'll be running in circles... definitions are WHAT not WHY... and a very loose "what", I might add. I think a new word is needed to clarify allot of things in our language... some thing like a "whywhat" word, for a more existential definition. Maybe "Whyt"? Probably won't catch on... most people don't make it to, or past, existential cognition. :)

    Here's some good reading on the subject, and why people don't like REAL definitions... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance

    "A classical example of this idea (and the origin of the expression "sour grapes") is expressed in the fable The Fox and the Grapes by Aesop (ca. 620–564 BCE). In the story, a fox sees some high-hanging grapes and wishes to eat them. When the fox is unable to think of a way to reach them, he surmises that the grapes are probably not worth eating, as they must not be ripe or that they are sour. This example follows a pattern: one desires something, finds it unattainable, and reduces one's dissonance by criticizing it. Jon Elster calls this pattern "adaptive preference formation."" (also... this is an exert... not a quote)

    Cognitive Dissonance describes allot of the WHY to problems we're facing these days...

    Energy is also similar to this... WHAT is it? Where does it come from? Why does it exist? We know WHERE energy comes from and how to obtain it... but the origins are a mystery and exist outside these three physical dimension. If we knew why energy exists, and not just WHERE it is... then things like transportation, fossil fuels, and over-population wouldn't be such a problem anymore. We're close with anti-matter reactions... but it's not really stable or practical for anything yet.

    Definitions are just definitions.

    This is also really good reading... http://www.wikihow.com/Deal-with-an-Existential-Crisis

    It helps explain why words and definitions are dumb...
  • @KCG
    Please don't patronize.

    @bwhitz

    Which IQ tests require regurgitation of knowledge? Stanford Binet, the most famous test doesn't, the Wechsler IQ test doesn't, even the Wonderlic, an quickie exam used to measure the intelligence of incoming NFL rookies doesn't require regurgitating knowledge. Reciting factual knowledge is useful on Jeopardy, but it has never been used as a measure of cognitive abilities as far as I know. If you know of a reputable, mainstream IQ test that's been used in the last 50 years that consists of regurgitating knowledge, please post the link.

    With regard to the definition of Economy, you're insisting on your surrealistic definition "because most people would freak out at this (if they knew the bwhitz definition). Politicians and the media have to soften the description of things to not sound threatening to the general population."

    Okay bwhitz, if you say so. Makes perfect sense. You should consider authoring a dictionary so you can explain to the world the real meaning of words, because it looks like most of us got it all wrong on account of those mean politicians and the liberal media.
  • It doesn't serve to further any conversation to argue your point to the degree that if someone doesn't agree with you that you try to tear them down or discredit them.
    I think bwhits has done a great job of maintaining his position and remaining un-accusatory in his defense.

    Emotional outrage will not solve problems or further intelligent debate.

    State your position.
    Don't assume stereotypes are true (if you are unsure if X believes something or not, ask X don't assume and draw unwarranted conclusions).
    Respect those who disagree with you.
    Dig deeper together into the mechanics of a subject keeping an open mind.
    Let your conscience be your guide.
    Keep your emotions to yourself.

    I think it was Jesus who said it best... Or maybe it was my Grandma :) ?
    "You will catch more flies with honey than with vinegar."


  • @brianluce "And while you're at it, look up "Economy", it won't say "It's a rating system"."

    That's because most people would freak out at this. Politicians and the media have to soften the description of things to not sound threatening to the general population. But, it is a rating system. Companies that are worth the most, usually do the best (or the most) business. Individuals that are worth allot (monetarily), generally do allot of work, or the work that they do is more valuable. Simple. It gets complex in the implementation like most things, but the premise it's built on is not complicated... When you have multiple individuals all contributing various degrees of work and ideas to society, they must be ranked and monetized accordingly. For example, one day of farm work is not equal to the designing and production of an automobile. If work and ideas were not ranked based on difficulty and value (and rightfully compensated) materials and resources would become imbalanced... and nobody would perform harder tasks if there was no greater compensation. A system that ranks, and rates, the value of work and performance needs to be established... an that is what an economy is.

    KCG was right, you (and others) are just arguing semantics and context. I'm arguing ideas and premises. This is probably why you think I'm being contradictive when I'm really not. It also isn't an insult or anything... it's just an observation. It's not wrong, just different.

    "Okay, first example I gave was your comment that IQ test are exams that test regurgitation of knowledge. No, that's not what they test. Go look it up."

    Some do. Some test other things. There are many different IQ tests. Unless you are talking about a specific standardized IQ test... but then you're just arguing semantics again.

    "And here's you're latest contradiction, with regard to reinvesting in the unproductive side of soceity you say:

    "Yes, I think this is a good idea. But, like you said, we must be careful on how it is implemented. "

    You're right, it makes sense and it's pragmatic, but you've spent the last two days arguing against this and called it "Immoral" when you said"

    Nope. I was arguing against FORCED welfare... and just taking money from wealthier people and re-distributing it amongst the less wealthy for no reason. @sam_stickland brought up the "idea" of welfare, and asked if it made sense and was a good idea. Which it is... but the implementation of it is wrong. It only seems like a contradiction if you're solely looking at the semantics and not the principles or ideas behind them.

    And just because you can't look something up... or because "scolars" don't agree, doesn't make it wrong. If scholars actually knew all the answers for certain, we wouldn't be facing problems with the world right now. That's why I don't quote people during debates. Quotes are great for entertainment and such... but too many people take them literally and verbatim.
  • @bwhitz
    "Not really. You're kind of just saying I'm being contradictive without actually pointing out the contradictions. And you say my facts are incorrect, but you are not providing others in place of them."

    Okay, first example I gave was your comment that IQ test are exams that test regurgitation of knowledge. No, that's not what they test. Go look it up. And while you're at it, look up "Economy", it won't say "It's a rating system".

    And here's you're latest contradiction, with regard to reinvesting in the unproductive side of soceity you say:

    "Yes, I think this is a good idea. But, like you said, we must be careful on how it is implemented. "

    You're right, it makes sense and it's pragmatic, but you've spent the last two days arguing against this and called it "Immoral" when you said

    "So even if you take money from the rich and give to the poor... that's still immoral. You cannot justify taking something away from someone just because someone else has less of it. "

    Where exactly do you think the money comes from if the government reinvests in the lower rungs of society? Obviously it comes from those who have it. You can't have it both ways bwhitz. You need to make you mind up where you stand on this. It's your latest of many contradictions which should one would think, sway you against your belief that this world is somehow "Simple" and can be explained away with a sentence or two in some "either/or" construction. That's amazing that someone could think that. I don't think you'll find many scholars claiming the world is simple, but I won't quote anyone because as we know, "Quotes are dumb."



  • @bwhitz I think too often what gets implemented is what will sound good in a media sound bite or what people feel is right in their gut. Instead, I think we should set out what we hope to achieve, then try different approaches and actually measure their success.

    Ben Goldacre writes a lot on the need to do randomised trials on policy.

    http://www.badscience.net/2011/05/we-should-so-blatantly-do-more-randomised-trials-on-policy/

    "They sit down to write a giant list of unanswered questions, for situations where we don’t know if an intervention works: this will be most of them. Then we filter down to questions where a randomised trial can feasibly be run. Then we do them.

    This won’t cost money: it will save money, in unprecedented amounts, by permitting disinvestment in failed interventions, and it will transform the country. It’s efficient, it’s sensible, and it will never happen, because politicians are too ignorant of these simple ideas, too arrogant to have their ideologies questioned, and too scared – let’s be generous – of hard data on their good intentions."

    Personally, I think that a society can be made more productive by having a level of welfare (healthcare and an unemployment 'safety net'). But you shouldn't have to take my word for it. And we shouldn't have to accept whatever - potentially badly thought out - distribution mechanism our government bureaucracies produce as the only way of doing it.

    We won't figure out what works and what doesn't by discussion or haphazardly changing policy every 5 to 10 years ;) If our politicians (and us!) were prepared to implement randomised trials on different policy ideas then we could actually collect some real data and start being able to answer these questions.

    We are a community of testers after all! :)
  • @Bueller "H. L. Mencken "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."

    Yes. This quote is 100% correct and automatically applies to everything. Thank you for pointing this out. I guess the debate is over.

    *rolls eyes*

    How about this one?

    "Quotes are dumb"
    -bwhitz :)

    @sam_stickland "Now what if we make an investment - using resources from a "productive end of society" - into the a "non-productive end" and use it to tackle the causes of non-productivity. Perhaps these causes are squalor, ignorance, idleness and disease? This isn't suggesting that we give free handouts to people, only that this investment is targeted at the reasons why this part of society isn't productive.

    Do you believe it's possible to do such a thing? Do you believe it's helpful (to society) to do such a thing? Is this idea fundamentally flawed? Or only flawed in the way it's currently implemented? "

    Nice! See, this is real discussion now!

    Yes, I think this is a good idea. But, like you said, we must be careful on how it is implemented. Usually in any given society, there is more 'need' than 'production'... so the production that is taken away and "re-invested" must be done carefully as to fully maximize it potential. Right now, it is very flawed in it's current implementation. Welfare money is being used to squander the effects... not the to fix the problems.

    What do you think?
  • H. L. Mencken "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."
  • @brianluce "I've already pointed out enough or your errors, false dichotomies, reduductionism, oversimplificaton, factually wrong statements (like economies are rating systems, wtf?), Not going to read through THAT again."

    Not really. You're kind of just saying I'm being contradictive without actually pointing out the contradictions. And you say my facts are incorrect, but you are not providing others in place of them...

    Most things are very simple. People like to believe things are more complicated than they are as an excuse for not understanding them. There are only a few principles that the entire world operates on... they can get complicated in the implementation (as things build and build on each other)... but the premises most things are based on are very simple. In fact, most every argument that you'll have about politics/religion/ect... in the end is actually just Free Will vs. Determinism, weather someone is aware of it or not.

    And yes, the economy is basically a performance/value rating system. It rates how well business is doing, how much products are worth, and how much an individual's worth is in comparison to everyone else. Money is the realization of this idea that gives us a tangible and physical medium to trade and pay debts to others' services and products. You perform a task, you're compensated for that task (based on it's relation and value to society as a whole), and then with money (Labor in tangible form), you're able to trade for someone else's. The more valuable the labor you perform, the more you are compensated (paid), and ultimately, the more labor or products you can trade for. What else would it be? If this is incorrect then please let us know otherwise...

    "You feel zero obligation to fellow human beings"

    Well, this isn't true, you just made that up. But either way... this is an individuals personal choice. You cannot just imply that all people are obligated and indebted to one another. The only time something, to me, is really "immoral" is if you make a choice that sacrifices someone else's. So even if you take money from the rich and give to the poor... that's still immoral. You cannot justify taking something away from someone just because someone else has less of it.

    @Vitaliy_Kiselev

    It's ok... I don't mind a long debate every once an a while. Unless you want us to stop clogging up your bandwidth... :)

  • @brianluce
    @bwhitz

    Guys, give yourself a break.
    Both of you have personal opinions and views.
    They are just diffrent.
  • @bwhitz
    I've already pointed out enough or your errors, false dichotomies, reduductionism, oversimplificaton, factually wrong statements (like economies are rating systems, wtf?), Not going to read through THAT again.

    Interesting that you deny the existence of morality. You feel zero obligation to fellow human beings, you think the law of the jungle does and should govern us apparently and that large segments of society should be cast aside and marginalized because you've deemed them inferior and unproductive. I sure am glad I don't live in your world, and wow would I hate to be in a foxhole with you when the shit hit the fan...assuming you believe all this stuff.
  • @bwhitz Interestingly the British welfare state was originally supposed to make people more productive, by tackling what the Beveridge report called the five "Giant Evils" in society: squalor, ignorance, want, idleness and disease.

    Whether it actually achieves that today is hugely debatable, but it proposes an interesting point. You said "If you take from the productive end of society and give it to the non-productive end... be it physically or intellectually, then you will run into problems and effectively stop the evolution of society if it goes unchecked."

    Now what if we make an investment - using resources from a "productive end of society" - into the a "non-productive end" and use it to tackle the causes of non-productivity. Perhaps these causes are squalor, ignorance, idleness and disease? This isn't suggesting that we give free handouts to people, only that this investment is targeted at the reasons why this part of society isn't productive.

    Do you believe it's possible to do such a thing? Do you believe it's helpful (to society) to do such a thing? Is this idea fundamentally flawed? Or only flawed in the way it's currently implemented?
  • @KCG "I do agree with you about the deregulation that caused the housing bubble, there was also regulation put in place that forced and in some cases allowed mortgage companies to give mortgages to give people who could not afford it in the first place, under the guise of fairness, and grand liberal utopian fantasy. Eventually reality would rear its ugly head."

    Yes. Spot on. The government did actually force companies to do this...

    @brianluce "Sorry but you've got a few too many non sequitors to be demanding logic from others. Sweep your own kitchen first. Besides, you challenged me a few posts back to cite examples of your shoddy reasoning and conclusions, I gave you a an example and you never bothered to retract or defend your arguments"

    Yes I did. All of my arguments stem from the logic (or facts) of evolution. I said that the economy is nothing more than an advanced way of rating our physical and intellectual performance. Before an economy, a species only relied on physical traits to adapt and evolve. A monetary system now allows intellect to be rewarded as well as just physical labor. Those with the best and brightest ideas should be rewarded along side those who physically work hard... since allot of the time in our modern world... labor only exists because of someone elses intellectual idea.

    If you take from the productive end of society and give it to the non-productive end... be it physically or intellectually, then you will run into problems and effectively stop the evolution of society if it goes unchecked.

    There... that basically sums up all my statements. There are no "non-sequitors" here... unless you are trying to prove evolution to be false. If the humans of the past were able to some how divide up their physical traits, so that "everyone was treated fairly and equally" then we would have not evolved. The same applies to the current world and our more advance selection system... the economy.

    "Sorry but you've got a few too many non sequitors to be demanding logic from others."

    Please point one out again then. I don't remember you doing this... sorry if I missed it.

    Of, course, there are things like corruption and such that play into this... but we must first come to a contradiction-free premise before when can arrive at any logical solutions. Saying something like "we're morally obligated to help each other" is not a premise nor is it even a fact... since it is derived from ones subjective view on morality. If an answer to any problem involves the justification of "morals" than it is to be considered incorrect immediately.
  • @brianluce

    You can try to read older stuff and reall more blog posts.
  • @Vitaliy
    loans (and resulting bubbles) are not the problem, they are solution for much mroe serious problem. Worked fuckingly well. But it is temporary solution.
    >>>>>>>>>>>

    I'm lost. What's the problem and how does giving hi risk loans to unqualified people solve it?
  • @brianluce
    @KCG

    Guys, calm down.
    I many times told what loans (and resulting bubbles) are not the problem, they are solution for much mroe serious problem. Worked fuckingly well. But it is temporary solution.
  • @KCG
    Mortgage companies were not forced to give anyone loans. They WANTED to loan money and were writing loans as fast as they could for one simple reason: Money.
    Everything you write has some partisan barb attached -- that's why it sounds like right wing radio. Democrats weren't even in charge when the bubble burst. What a canard to keep raising their specter. The crash had nothing to do with misplaced compassion. Repeat, nothing to do with misplaced compassion and utopian fantasy. Sheesh. This is hopeless.
  • @brianluce, @cbrandin
    Do you really expect answers to questions when all you seem to do is quibble over semantics and call names like a child when responded to, I think its pretty obvious why you weren't answered?
    I do agree with you about the deregulation that caused the housing bubble, there was also regulation put in place that forced and in some cases allowed mortgage companies to give mortgages to give people who could not afford it in the first place, under the guise of fairness, and grand liberal utopian fantasy. Eventually reality would rear its ugly head.
  • @bwhitz
    Sorry but you've got a few too many non sequitors to be demanding logic from others. Sweep your own kitchen first. Besides, you challenged me a few posts back to cite examples of your shoddy reasoning and conclusions, I gave you a an example and you never bothered to retract or defend your arguments. And now you've got more questions for me? No thanks. Especially on a point as widely accepted as deregulation of the housing finance industry caused a bubble which ignited the meltdown of the economy. That's pretty basic non partisan stuff. Even right wing radio and tea party goofs generally accept that premise. As V says, Credit forms to "dumb" people = disaster.