One personal thought, i hope it could be interesting for this community.
I came from Canon HV20, and in terms of resolution and overall perfomance, i consider the hacked GH1-GH2 a quantum leap from HV20, mostly because they were both (new) in sub $1500 range.
Now we are seeing new cameras coming, and people like to say the BMCC is the "best bang for buck" (lol) at $3000.
But my question is: until we don't have a professional ROI, how much these $3000 cameras are worth the investment?
I see i can do my homework with GH2, and honestly, even much more than that.
My question to expert people here is: do you see a quantum leap coming? I mean one like the HV20 to GH1-2 was.
If you can see it, can it be the bmcc? If not, which features a new dlsr (or camcorder) must have to make another quantum leap, and what would be the price point? (Consider your answer like a mathematic equation, HV20 : Hacked GH2 = Hacked GH2 : price-features )
I really suggest to change topic title.
@jean71 it's pointless to predict such quantum leap on anything. no one has a crystal ball.
It's obviously impossible to predict, but I think you can look at some current trends to get an idea of what technology will look like in the next couple years. I think we're going to see ultra high resolution sensors (4K+) with increased dynamic range in prosumer devices before too long. In fact I think we should expect to see 4K in consumer devices, including cell phones, in the next year or two. I also think we should expect to see much higher frame-rates coming very soon (1080p at 60fps will be standard very soon, 120fps in slightly higher priced models, 4K at 60fps won't take much longer either and should appear in prosumer devices within a few years).
BMCC notwithstanding, I think cameras with RAW recording and 13+ stops of dynamic range may take a little longer to enter the sub-$5000 market. Most manufacturers that have the resources to develop a camera like this are producing cameras with those features in the $15,000 - $80,000 range, and so they would be severely undercutting themselves.
Obviously, everyone wants a RAW camera shooting 4K at 60fps on a Super-35 sized sensor with 13+ stops of dynamic range and zero rolling shutter issues for under $5000, and although the technology for such a camera is pretty much already here, why would anyone price it at $5000 when they could sell it for $25,000 and still cause a sensation? The only hope is that a manufacturer like BMCC takes a risk and banks on the lower price point leading to far more sales.
BMCC is without a doubt the best bang for the buck right now when it comes to cinema cameras. I don't think it's a revolution, though. Those features on a Super-35mm sensor and with 4K would have been revolutionary.
Obviously, everyone wants a RAW camera shooting 4K at 60fps on a Super-35 sized sensor with 13+ stops of dynamic range and zero rolling shutter issues for under $5000,
I much prefer 3D modular camera that'll shoot at special high dynamic range AVCHD, up to 120fps in 1080p.
@Vitaliy_Kiselev I changed title :-)
@Sangye You stated a point much better than me, i find in your words something i would have wanted to say: the only hope is manifacturer takes risks. I was expecting the famous "3k for 3k$" for some time, and we know how it turned: a very good camera, but not the expected price point. It's impossible to make predictions, but sometimes a manufacturer go out of the cartel, i hope it will be Kineraw, now that China is reaching excellence. It wasn't for predictions, not only, it was for preferences in low budget. Thanks everybody for your answers.
The future is here as far as specs, it's now a matter of affordability. But I guess they are trying to keep the average person from owning a camera with top notch specs making YouTube videos of their cat.
Things are crazy amazing and crazy amazing price points. People shouldn't obsess so much over the next big thing. Make great content the next big thing. 4k is fool's gold right now.
The next generation of so-called “4K” high-definition display technology for the home – giant-screen TVs with more than eight million pixels of resolution, four times the resolution of today’s high-definition televisions – will be called “Ultra High-Definition” or “Ultra HD,” connoting its superiority over conventional HDTV
It's going to be years before 4k has any significant presence in display mediums. We can't even get people to watch Blu Ray. I pay a lot of money to Cox Cable for TV and most channels aren't even 1080i. Theaters are mostly 2k -- not significant anyhow since most people don't get their content viewed on big screen.
+1. Netflix is barely 480p...
4k TV, 4k receiver, 4k player, 4k bluray disks, 4k computer screen. Plus 4k camera/cams with only 4:2:0... DUH!!!
It's going to be years before 4k has any significant presence in display mediums
It can be badly wrong assumption.
In fact, displaye will be far ahead of content here.
4k TV, 4k receiver, 4k player, 4k bluray disks, 4k camera/cams... 4:2:0... DUH!!!
In fact, just small PC with 4K support and 4k TV or display are enough.
As for Blu-ray disks - forget this crap.
Without bluray, how to consume 4k contents?
Please not from your perspective. Look at it from general consumers. Most people don't wanna use their PC to watch contents.
Most people don't wanna use their PC to watch contents.
Most 4K TVs will have players who could play 4K by themselfs, as it is so today with 1080p sets.
Without bluray, how to consume 4k contents?
As tens of millions do today :-) Most people in developing countries never used blurays, yet watch 1080p ;-)
So you are saying 4k adaptation will happen rapidly?
I doubt it.
In fact, displaye will be far ahead of content here.
When? I see little evidence of this happening in scale.
I remain skeptical; no content, displays, prohibitive costs and the fact 1080p hasn't even caught on yet. Also, there is no 4k mandate as there was with HD.
4k might make for a popular NAB booth but out in consumerville, hard to imagine it succeeding. The real trend is like what's going on in music: lower resolution stuff that's streamable. 4k on an iPod is pointless.
I think only Sony has a 4k projector for home use, it's $25,000!
Most people in developing countries never used blurays, yet watch 1080p ;-)
Is this really true? The developing countries I know of have zero HD broadcasting and not even Blu Ray yet. And in the US I don't believe 1080p is available.
The problem is cheap 4k for broadcasting, tvs and blu ray, plus 30+ crappy megapixels in cellphones cameras. At that point any customer will hire people saying: "Ehy, bring your pro stuff, my cellphone can do 4k, what's the point in paying you if you don't have more horsepower than me?". That could be a catastrofic scenario :-) Here's the point where DR, RAW, IQ and sensors will make the difference over the resolution. Some cellphones right now outnumber some good DSLR in megapixel run, and they have a sensor big like a nail's head. Maybe at the very end the equation will be resolved (maybe, again) on person's creativity. Imagination, straight out of the numbers :-) Any thoughts?
@brianluce He meant BluRay ripping by x264 then MKV distribution over the net. If everyone does that, it'll kill the film industry. It would've killed iTunes, too. But that didn't happen.
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2032304_2032746_2032903,00.html
Johansen rejects any attempt to associate him with piracy. "As far as I'm concerned, it has nothing to do with me," he says. "I support fair use, which means that when you actually legally acquire content, you should have the right to use that content on any of your devices, using any application." For Johansen as for all of the pirate kings, it was always about writing good code, and what good code does is give power to the people who use it. That's the real reason the pirate apocalypse never happened. The pirates never wanted music and movies and all the rest of it to be free — at least, not in the financial sense. They wanted it to be free as in freedom.
Some of us download HD content (say from the bay) but also prefer to buy Bluray discs also. I myself have eventually replaced a lot of my hard drive movie collection with physical discs. As a film and music lover Its just nice to have a physical library. Nice to have the extras like audio comms and docs also.
Sometimes some of these mkv rips look like shit unless you want to download the higher GB versions. Going off topic anyhoooooo....
I don't see anything nice in phycical library, as it is very costly and inconvenient. You can't compare it to good server sitting in the corner with many TB, so you can play contant on any of your devices instantly.
As for me, I think that total ban on dvds and blue-ray can be very healthy for economy.
Ban BluRay. Ban piracy. Then the only way to watch HD content is through paid streaming. But it's awfully slow in the States. If the streaming is the future, I don't see 4K TV becoming a mainstream anytime soon.
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