Important note:

Every learning course for unqualified staff must set as main goal to let them understand themselves how unqualified they are. Without it any other progress is impossible. But such understanding itself is not enough for real progress, they also usually need kick in the ass.

DouglasHorn I might be biased from reading too much stuff on the internet. So many people argue from these rigid ideological models. It's scary how so many are in lock step with each other. One reason I appreciate VK is his views typically don't fit the familiar paradigms that have choked sensible discussions on the internet. I do agree with the article though about the connection between CB and DK, though there's plenty of space here for your view that it's not about pre existing paradigms. Probably a mix of the two.

What I think Dunning is describing above, a conclusion with which I completely agree, are the various components of confirmation bias. As we try to make sense of the world we work with our existing knowledge and paradigms, we formulate ideas and then systematically seek out information that confirms those ideas. We dismiss contrary information as exceptions. We interpret ambiguous experiences in line with our theories. We remember and then our memories tweak any experience that seems to confirm what we believe.

I think of DK as due to "You don't know what you don't know." Beginners with limited exposure tend to oversimplify a subject and therefore come to the conclusion that they know all they need to (and are awesome). As people are exposed to more, they realize the depth of their ignorance. At some point they realize just how much there still is to learn and their confidence reaches its nadir. Eventually they learn more, see others behind them on the curve, have some success, etc and their confidence increases.

I think to explain this via CB, you're talking about a person opening up with the irrational assumption that they must be good at something and then looking at every piece of data not totally to the contrary as confirmation of this. That doesn't really match my observations of the DK effect.

The Dunning-Kruger effect has rocked my confidence in all things. I constantly wonder if I'm actually any good at something (that I think I'm good at) or just exuberantly overconfident due to the Dunning-Kruger effect. I find myself ever in search of outside validation because my belief in myself could just be the damning proof that I actually don't have a clue.

That said, I'm pretty sure that this is different than confirmation bias which pertains to interpreting ambiguous data preferentially toward confirming an existing belief. Right?

presumably it should say "Know nothing" Love that chart btw. The smartest docs I've know, and I've know some of the best, often answer science questions with a shrug. They know that they don't know.

Does "No nothing" mean "something" or "everything"? :-)

Typo. Or possibly dictation error. It should probably write, " Know nothing"

No nothing means fucking idiot.

Chart from older post from raw topic.