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Inflation: Corn
  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev
    image

    Looking at 2008 and 2011 you can see some common things, isn't it
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    614 x 463 - 16K
  • 22 Replies sorted by
  • stoneystoney
    If there's just little shortage like 90% instead of 100% supply to meet demand, price can go skyrocketing if the commodity is "necessary" item. i.e. minor supply chain disruption can cause a total pain. Imagine a major disruption... scary.
  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev
    Yeah, old idea of supply and demand.
    Just demand comes from more and more people wanting to eat :-)
    Unfortunately, Earth seems to be limited.
  • stoneystoney
    Supply and demand is old idea that still works. We still have explosive population growth. Also more fat people...
  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev
  • svartsvart
    Actually, most corn in the USA is inedible and is not used for food. More than half of it is used for feed for animals, for ethanol production(at least 25%) and for creating HFCS, which is a horrible horrible chemical, and the most likely reason we are getting exponentially fatter... A good portion of what's left is exported and the remainder is food.

    Of course, all of this is subsidized by the government and most of the corn grown in the USA is genetically modified by a company named Monsato who lock farmers into agreements.

    But what is really driving prices is ethanol production. Since gasoline is at all time highs, the companies are putting more ethanol into the gas, which causes more demand and higher prices, not the weather they say is causing the prices to rise.
  • CRFilmsCRFilms
    Yes Ethanol. I'm never gonna buy an ethanol powered vehicle and neither will most people. That's a lot of good farmland being wasted on a product that will ultimately go nowhere.

    As for fat.....if you die of a heart attack at 50 because of obesity....that saves social security and medicare payments down the line. Everybody complains about the cost of obesity, but it's the cost of end of life care where all the big bucks go...medical treatment and care when you're 60-70+. So....eat up! :P.
  • svartsvart
    Well, it's been proven time and time again that eating fats does not make you fat. It doesn't even effect your blood lipid levels at all. The whole "low fat" diet thing is a scam based on 50+ year old thinking. All of the recent studies show relationships between blood sugar levels and blood lipids(cholesterols, triglycerides, etc) and insulin problems. Looking at things like HFCS, which bypasses the normal sugar metabolism pathways and is turned directly into triglycerides by the liver without even stimulating the insulin response, you start get an understanding that chemicals like HFCS can make you fat without your body even knowing that it has eaten something and your blood lipid levels can rise without even eating a bite of fats.

    With the statin drugs making record profits, special diets like Jenny Craig and "low fat" foods making a serious amount of money for people, nobody is willing to change the status quo.
  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev
    >But what is really driving prices is ethanol production.

    Agree here.
    Someone must be fucked hard for this.
    I think that main idea now is that in really big upcoming crysis everyone forget about such small little nonsense.

    >Monsato who lock farmers into agreements.

    See Food Inc. topic about corporations and food in USA :-)
  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev
    >With the statin drugs making record profits, special diets like Jenny Craig and "low fat" foods making a serious amount of money for people, nobody is willing to change the status quo.

    I seriously doubt that you could be fat if you ride 30Km a day on mountain bike on rough terrain and do not eat like horse.
  • svartsvart
    That is very true and I agree. Any amount of exercise is by far the best thing for anybody. However, with things like HFCS, you have to work off the fat directly, not the glucose or glycogen in the blood, so it's much harder to control by exercise alone. You have to control the source as well.

    Moderation, not eating like a horse, is key. However HFCS does not stimulate the insulin response so your brain never gets the signals to stop eating. This is why people have a hard time controlling HFCS intake, as well as HFCS being in everything these days. It allows companies to sell more drinks and foods because people don't feel as full as they would if they ate healthy food. So not eating like a horse needs to include eating good foods too or else people don't feel like they've eaten at all.
  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev
    @svart

    You seems to be an expert on this :-)
  • svartsvart
    I studied medical before moving to engineering in school. I also found myself becoming more overweight and became determined to become healthy so I studied as much as I could. I cut out HFCS and most processed foods as well as sodas. I lost 50lbs just by doing this and my blood sugars dropped to normal and so did my cholesterol. All without the need for drugs. I exercise a few times a week and now I feel better than I did when I was younger.
  • stoneystoney
    I burn more energy by carrying heavier gears :)

    I quit smoking cigarette and drinking soda/milk. Not for diet. Mostly to save money. True story. My bad cholesterol level dropped from 200 to 120 within a year. I gotta keep up w/ aging body. I'm almost 40.
  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev
    It seems like we need topic named like "Got a lens? Now go a health! Complete FAQ." :-)
  • mepmep
  • MrAnthonyMrAnthony
    The "anti-fat in food" movement has destroyed the flavor of many processed foods, so to get people to eat those foods, they have to add all sorts of things, like HFCS, to get flavor back into foods. Fat not only carries flavor, but consumption of fat tells the brain when to stop eating. When coupled with a lack of exercise (here in the U.S., many people will drive their car rather than walk a two blocks), it's a recipe for weight gain. HFCS by itself isn't dangerous; it's made with fructose (fruit sugar) and glucose, two simple sugars, but it's way overused, doesn't metabolize the same as sucrose (table sugar), and is easily overconsumed.

    As for the price of corn, the original chart is misleading because it doesn't go back far enough. Looking at longer term historical prices and adjusting for inflation, corn prices today are still lower than the mid-1990's. Also the effects of ethanol production on corn price are somewhat overstated here in the thread. A much bigger reason for the price jump would be greater demand (particularly from China) and poor harvests outside the U.S.
  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev
    >As for the price of corn, the original chart is misleading because it doesn't go back far enough. Looking at longer term historical prices and adjusting for inflation, corn prices today are still lower than the mid-1990's.

    Any link to data or graph that prove this?

    You must also understand that this chart is quite correlated with other food prices, oil prices and over commodities. 90s had very low oil prices and commodities prices had been lower also.

    >A much bigger reason for the price jump would be greater demand (particularly from China) and poor harvests outside the U.S.

    Again, any links to data?
  • MrAnthonyMrAnthony
    The information is easily available. Here's just one chart:

    image

    From here:
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2011/05/corn-yields-have-increased-6x-since.html

    Or try the charts on page 9 or 11 of the powerpoint here:
    http://www.docstoc.com/docs/45583378/Commodity-Prices

    Here's the information on China demand and poor harvests:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/corn-prices-near-record-plunge-corn-stocks-china-use-surge-us-tightest-corn-supply-levels-15

    And of course, the price spike in energy these last few years makes corn more expensive to harvest and transport, also causing a price spike.
  • MrAnthonyMrAnthony
    Oh, I forgot to add: there was a huge drought in 1995-1996 in the U.S., which caused problems for corn and soybean yields, and wheat had problems in the winter due to poor snow cover.

    >90s had very low oil prices and commodities prices had been lower also.
    Not for certain commodities, as noted for the weather-related reasons above.
  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev
    @MrAnthony

    Thanks for info.

    >Not for certain commodities, as noted for the weather-related reasons above.

    I agree.
    All I wanted to say is that now commodities rise is similar among wide variety of them.
    So, you can't just compare corn to old corn prices.
    Price comparison must be complex.
    It could be interesting to overlay real apartments prices on your corn chart, for example :-)
  • MrAnthonyMrAnthony
    Ah, if your point is that inflation is about to occur for everything, then I would agree, mostly for reasons having to do with the U.S. national debt and the inability of Congress to cut the budget meaningfully. Unfortunately, this will have international repercussions. Europe itself is incapable of leading an economic recovery, as it is bailing out its weaker economies (like Greece). China is too economically dependent on the U.S to lead as well.
  • stoneystoney
    We not out of the woods yet. Great Recession Part II is unfolding.
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