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Oil declines improved or where QE is going in reality
  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    Observed decline rate of the 1,600 fields that provide 70% of the world’s oil today and that are post-­‐peak, you have an observed decline rate of 6.2%.

    More broad view. If you look all of the fields currently producing conventional crude oil today, they produce about 69 million barrels of oil and that with ongoing investment in those fields over time that is natural, you would get to 28 million barrels by 2035.

    If you look at the raw numbers, global upstream capex for the oil and gas industry - and about 75% of the total is just for oil -‐ has trebled in real terms since 2000. The IEA estimates that upstream capex this year will be about $700 billion compared with $250 billion in 2000 in real terms. Those numbers are in constant dollars. So that is a real term increase of nearly three times.

    US, of course, is most efficient, as mass media will tell you.

    OECD in North America is producing about 20% of the world’s oil at the moment but OECD in North America accounts for 50% of the world’s capex for oil.

    Sorry, they again lied to you. Some independent estimates show that for each $1 invested US gets shale oil worth 10 cents.

    http://www.jeremyleggett.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/131210-TESD-Part-One-edited-transcript.pdf

  • 3 Replies sorted by
  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    Small illustration in example of UK to show that US is not alone:

    image

    image

    image

    As you can see big investments can't even hold declines.

    oil.jpg
    500 x 449 - 37K
    oil1.jpg
    506 x 450 - 45K
    oil2.jpg
    505 x 447 - 41K
  • robertGLrobertGL

    http://peakoilbarrel.com/ <--- another good site to track up_to_date production numbers.. The owner is a retired Nasa tech that monitors and charts all data he comes across

  • Vitaliy_KiselevVitaliy_Kiselev

    After nearly 50 years of production, Britain’s oil sector has reached a crucial point. To put it bluntly, Britain’s offshore oil industry has entered old age. The size of discoveries has tailed off sharply, a classic sign of maturity. Production has fallen 37 percent from 2010 levels, while costs, thanks in part to the need to maintain creaky infrastructure, have soared. All of this adds up to sharply reduced profitability of the oil and gas fields, to a point where some of them lose money. Executives say that unless the British government and energy companies adjust to the new realities, the industry could find itself in deep trouble.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/business/energy-environment/britain-oil-and-gas.html?_r=0

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