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    Why camera companies are killing camera market?
    • Look around, you see camera companies cutting development of new models. Innovations speed drops fast.


      You see more and more new protected and incompatible camera mounts.

      You see more and more expensive camera prices and lenses prices.

      And all this leads to unprecedented drop in camera sales. With management telling that it is all bad smartphones. They lie.

      We cover most exhibitions and attendance on all of them is rising. And 98% people in private talks tell that they want to try and touch new cameras, but can't buy them.Too expensive. And this is paired with fast price drops on many camera bodies.

      In reality we see huge hierarchical systems fighting for their survival, you can imagine them as dinosaurs. Such system in the search of survival drops to most primitive, natural and "worked for our parents" solutions. It means - cut development costs and rise prices. In the plans discussed during meetings each year all looks amazing. They put drop in sales in plans, but compensate it with around 10-35% of profits hike per body, and around 10-20% of development costs cut. Unfortunately it never works as intended.

      They view transformations like extreme dangers and all previous transformations worked only during periods of fast growth where new structures could be added and slowly overgrow older ones and later naturally merge or transform and kill old parts.

      Cameras are computers, they are not advanced film cameras as they are being treated by all Japanese managers. And computers require exponential rise in complexity that leads to unification of OS and software and also bringing in third party developers. As even huge companies can only provide tiny amount of requested features.

      Yet, Japanese dinosaurs continue to struggle for survival and due to Japan specific business structure can't even marge as was necessary years ago.

      It'll all end very bad, really bad.

    1 comment 2 comments Vitaliy_KiselevMarch 2019Last reply - March 2019 by Vitaliy_Kiselev Subscribe to this blog
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    Strange rumor: Panasonic to transfer all consumer imaging to be under Leica brand
    • My source told that on latest meeting it had been revealed that grand plan can be to shift all of consumer imaging product to be under Leica brand within 2 next years, with departments still mostly residing in Japan. Pro will remain in Panasonic.

      Panasonic want to reposition all product as being premium, elite focused ones. Same as new S1 and S1R cameras and lenses.

      Choosing L mount had been part of this same strategy.

      Shifting all to be under Leica brand can be necessary due to more price hikes planned ahead, especially this considers lenses.

      Also sales and preorder number more correspond to niche brand like Leica already.

      My source is not sure about GH lineup future, but it can even fall as victim of big management decisions or can be transferred to pro department.

      Note - it is management talks, not final decision!

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    Why premium smartphones are so expensive?
    • Following is result of small talks with industry insiders.

      All of the leaders of smartphones market like Apple, Samsung, Huawei are rising prices for their top offerings. For some models profits already broke 400% barrier (do not look at fake cost to production lists as they have no meaning). But it is only few models and such profit margins become real only after certain volume.

      Reason of such price hike is not new screens or even not extra cameras - main reason is that buyers of such smartphones finance a lot of semiconductors industry expenses. From newest processes around 70% is paid for by top and middle lines smartphone buyers and remaining 30% mostly financed by datacenters and high performance computing centers.

      Biggest danger now is smartphones market saturation, inability to hike prices even more and issues in semiconductors industry where progress costs rise exponentially still.

      Insiders tell that we can expect dramatic events unwind in 2019 already and certainly in 2020 and 2021. Whole industry will be shaken and it is not much they can do as we have mostly monopolies with not much mergers potential.

      Thing happening at NAND and especially DRAM market can be required moves for redistribution of profits.

      Main goal remains to keep two companies to be able to reach real 7nm. Despite for now no one of them can do even real 10nm (marketed TSMC 7nm is worse than Intel 10nm).

      Main candidate for next big fall now is Samsung who is most affected by smartphones financing of their own semiconductor division.

    1 comment 2 comments Vitaliy_KiselevMarch 2019Last reply - March 2019 by Glenn7 Subscribe to this blog
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    Capitalism: How subscription works
    • Last July, AT&T increased the cost of its live TV streaming bundles by $5 per month. And beginning in April, AT&T will add another $10 per month. That means the cost of a monthly subscription has gone up more than 40 percent in less than one year.

      When DirecTV Now launched in 2016, it offered more than 100 live streaming channels for $35 per month. When these new changes go into effect, the company will offer DirecTV Now Plus at $50 per month for 40-plus channels and DirectTV Now Max at $70 per month for 50-plus channels. So not only will you be paying more, you'll be getting less.

      You'll see exact same story repeat with Adobe and all else. And they won't stop.

    11 comments 12 comments Vitaliy_KiselevMarch 2019Last reply - March 2019 by Vitaliy_Kiselev Subscribe to this blog
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    Capitalism: Poor economics of shared scooters
    • image

      In October, The Information reported that Bird was spending $551 per scooter with a goal of reducing that cost to $360. At the time, I said that meant Bird needed five rides a day on a $551 scooter for 5.25 months just to recoup the initial cost.

      The picture painted by the Louisville data is even worse. Transit enthusiast Nathan Stevens also analyzed the Louisville data for Aug. 9 through Nov. 30, and I'm going to pull in some of what he found to back out scooter economics in Louisville:


      • 663 scooters in circulation
      • The average trip was 1.63 miles
      • The average trip lasted 18 minutes
      • The average scooter did 3.49 rides per day


      • Both Bird and Lime charge $1 to unlock a scooter and $0.15 per minute
      • At 18 minutes, the average trip generated $3.70 in revenue (note that this, based on three months of data in Louisville is nearly identical to the $3.65 in revenue per ride Bird reportedly told investors it was averaging as of June)
      • At 3.49 rides per day, the average scooter generated $12.91 in revenue per day

      General costs, based on reporting by The Information

      • Bird spent $1.72 per ride on charging costs
      • It spent another $0.51 per ride, on average, on repairs
      • Credit card fees cost $0.41 per ride
      • Customer support adds $0.06 per ride
      • Insurance is $0.05 per ride

      Louisville-specific costs, from dockless vehicle policy (pdf)

      • $2,000 for a probationary license (required for the first six months of operation)
      • Additional $1,000 to receive full operating license
      • Annual $50 fee per dockless vehicle
      • Daily $1 fee per dockless vehicle
      • $100 fee per designated group parking area

      Louisville daily scooter economics

      • A scooter generates $3.70 in revenue per ride
      • Deducting per-ride costs of charging, repairs, credit card fees, customer support, and insurance, leaves $0.95 per ride
      • Multiplied by 3.49 rides per day is $3.32 in net revenue per scooter per day
      • Minus the $1 daily fee leaves $2.32

      Our scooter company walks away with $2.32 in revenue per day from the average scooter in Louisville. As we said at the beginning, Louisville data indicates that the average scooter was around for between 28 and 32 days. That means the typical scooter generated something like $65 to $75 in revenue for the company after most operating costs over its lifetime.

    5 comments 6 comments Vitaliy_KiselevMarch 2019Last reply - March 2019 by Vitaliy_Kiselev Subscribe to this blog
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    Good quote: On how progress looks in capitalism
    • The best minds of my generation are thinking about how to make people click ads. That sucks.

      Jeff Hammerbacher

    4 comments 5 comments Vitaliy_KiselevMarch 2019Last reply - March 2019 by Vitaliy_Kiselev Subscribe to this blog
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