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What do we know about the novel coronavirus?
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  • Alibaba says its AI-powered algorithm can identify coronavirus infections with 96% accuracy

    The system can complete the recognition process within 20 seconds.

    The diagnosis algorithm was developed by Alibaba’s research institute Damo Academy. Researchers at the academy said they have trained the AI model with sample data from more than 5,000 confirmed cases, adding that the system can identify differences in CT scans between patients infected with the novel virus and those with ordinary viral pneumonia with an accuracy of up to 96%. The algorithm includes the latest treatment guidelines and recently published research, said its creators.

    The new diagnostic tool was first introduced in Qiboshan Hospital in Zhengzhou, Henan province, which was modeled after the Beijing Xiaotangshan Hospital, completed in 2003 for the SARS crisis. The hospital has already started accepting patients infected with coronavirus on Sunday. The system will also be adopted in more than 100 hospitals in the provinces of Hubei, Guangdong, and Anhui, said Alibaba.

    The new algorithm could alleviate pressure on hospitals, as it can complete the recognition process within 20 seconds, according to Alibaba. Usually, it will take a doctor 5 to 15 minutes to analyze a CT scan of one suspected patient—which could include more than 300 images—to give a clinical diagnosis.

    https://kr-asia.com/alibaba-says-its-ai-powered-algorithm-can-identify-coronavirus-infections-with-96-accuracy

  • RESEARCH PAPER:The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated , R0: 4.7-6.6

    “Abstract The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.”

    PDF: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

    CNN: Here's how long coronaviruses may linger on contaminated surfaces, according to science

    These human coronaviruses, such as SARS and MERS, have been found to persist on inanimate surfaces -- including metal, glass or plastic surfaces -- for as long as nine days if that surface had not been disinfected, according to research published earlier this month in The Journal of Hospital Infection.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/17/health/novel-coronavirus-surfaces-study/index.html

  • The diagnosis algorithm was developed by Alibaba’s research institute Damo Academy. Researchers at the academy said they have trained the AI model with sample data from more than 5,000 confirmed cases, adding that the system can identify differences in CT scans between patients infected with the novel virus and those with ordinary viral pneumonia with an accuracy of up to 96%.

    First, it is suitable only for heavy cases, as CT is already highly overloaded. Next "up to 96%" is quite low for big mass algorithm. And you must note that they had quite small training base, so can be so called "overtraining".

    The new algorithm could alleviate pressure on hospitals, as it can complete the recognition process within 20 seconds, according to Alibaba. Usually, it will take a doctor 5 to 15 minutes to analyze a CT scan of one suspected patient—which could include more than 300 images

    They just forgot to tell you how much time it takes to make these CT scans :-) As from start to finish it is 15 minutes (at least), so it is waste of money and time.

  • The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated , R0: 4.7-6.6

    I think that government knew this number almost from the start.

  • It seems due to much improved situation with virus Mordor just banned any Chinese citizens entrance.

    This includes tourism travel, work and any other reasons. No end date for this restriction is specified for now.

  • This is quite interesting

    An approximately 1:1 ratio of male (50.7%) and female COVID-19 patients was found, with an overall median age of 57.0 years. All patients were community acquired cases. Fever (91.7%), cough (75.0%), fatigue (75.0%) and gastrointestinal symptoms (39.6%) were the most common clinical manifestations, whereas hypertension (30.0%) and diabetes mellitus (12.1%) were the most common comorbidities. Drug hypersensitivity (11.4%) and urticaria (1.4%) were self-reported by several patients. Asthma or other allergic diseases was not reported by any of the patients. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, 1.4%) and current smokers (1.4%) were rare.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/all.14238

    It seems like smokers and people with respiratory issues are actually much less probable to become ill.

  • Nonsense. 100% of people susceptible to Corona Virus that have been exposed have been infected. No one else is infected.

  • @zcream

    100% of people susceptible to Corona Virus that have been exposed have been infected. No one else is infected.

    What this statement means really? As I referenced scientific article, and here we have general words statement without much meaning.

    Everyone will become ill if exposed to the virus? Of course not.

  • I forgot the smiley :-)

  • Anyone's guess what the market will do tomorrow. It will open low, then who knows.

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  • As we're going into fullblown pandemic mode, the john hopkins coronavirus data site is showing no data ? Something I might expect, and disconcerting .... https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

  • UK

    “The current planning assumption is that 2-3 per cent of symptomatic cases will result in a ­fatality,” states the document, meaning that 500,000 would die.