One thing that definitely needs to happen for AGI to be a possibility is an increase in the power of computer hardware. If an AI system is going to be as intelligent as the brain, it’ll need to equal the brain’s raw computing capacity.

Nope

One way to express this capacity is in the total calculations per second (cps) the brain could manage, and you could come to this number by figuring out the maximum cps of each structure in the brain and then adding them all together.

Wrong.

Moore’s Law is a historically-reliable rule that the world’s maximum computing power doubles approximately every two years,

First, definition of rule is wrong. Second - it is unreliable.

Also, before reading and taking seriously such articles is it good advice - read something similar from 80s and 90s.

If you ask me - main goal of such articles is to move people attention from real things (manufacturing "robots" advantages, moving jobs to low wage countries, increasing exploitation of workers) and moving it into dream land that prostitute journalists so love.

If we have any difficult problem - it is bunch of AI morons and criminals who earn huge money producing nothing.

If you want to see any real progress - look at Google Now, Cortana, Siri.

V....I agree about moore's law but any links supporting your views ? Lots of smart people don't appear to agree !

I do not get that you want. Definition of Moore law is really different, and if you just look you will see that Moore law is not very good and reliable, and it stopped to work already (due to nature and economics).

I worked with some of those morons and criminals....and guess what ? They might not be such morons as you might think !

Any specific examples, AI related?

There's a shxtload if advancement in the "secret domain" . I know that for a fact, since I had a clearance.

LOL

number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years

This is definition, yes. Not the performance increase (citation - world’s maximum computing power doubles approximately every two years).

Some are still not in the public domain. It shows how little you're in the know ! You don't know that google, intel and microsoft are neckdeep in top secret projects for the US gov ? I'd bet they've got double or triple the computer hardware capacity that's been commercialized....maybe far more.

This absolutely does not relate to anything. As mass production for all latest tech requires installing lines that can not function only for secret applications. In lab on test equipment small amount of chips can be made, each costing a fortune. But they are not applicable to defense tasks, until it is few unique satellites.

In reality defense in all countries use old processes, sometimes with as far as 10-15 years lag. Many contracts require specific execution with RF and other protections. And new tech is much worse in this regard.

read up on hypersonic missiles

What exact to read and about what exact missile?

Do some googling. But mach 5-10 aircraft requires advanced computing power in their guidance and control systems. But even more important is the computational power required to defend against such. And the USa spends billions of dollars on research....as well as china, russia, israel, india , etc. China is going all the way down the tube, and I believe russia has one as well...and I doubt very seriously if they're using 10 years old intel chips !

Can you be MORE specific? As you post how important you are and yet level of talk is no match for this.

I think there's an AI in "oracle mode" already helping the elites. I think the homeogeneity of their program is evidence. AI was top billed at bilderberg with googles deep mind.

I am more simple. If you do not see any results of this AI, no real scientific pubs about this, and looking at elites actions I am sure that if they have any "AI" it was taken directly from amoeba.

you think that raytheon is going to publish the details i.e. which processors used in their computer guidance systems for their highly classified hypersonic missiles ....for Vitaliy to read ? ...or me ?

Specialists do not know all details, but know most things from principles and analogy and can estimate most else.

Hypersonic stuff existed for long time (happened to read long overview not long ago) and used pretty ancient computing things. May be it is all not so today, most probably.

Have you ever once read a classified document online ?

Yes. Online and offline.

I did help design and build early ion accelerators for the first production run machines to implant silicon wafers for ibm in the mid 70's but that's ancient history. After that I did something completely different, so lost interest in processor technology.

Can you make topic and post about thing projects you had been involved? I ask without any irony and such. I am very interested and I am sure many members will be.