Tagged with economics - Personal View Talks http://personal-view.com/talks/discussions/tagged/economics/p5/feed.rss Fri, 03 May 24 17:12:26 +0000 Tagged with economics - Personal View Talks en-CA Greece: May 2012 unemployment http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/4199/greece-may-2012-unemployment Fri, 10 Aug 2012 04:13:54 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 4199@/talks/discussions image

Via: http://www.statistics.gr/portal/page/portal/ESYE/BUCKET/A0101/PressReleases/A0101_SJO02_DT_MM_05_2012_01_F_EN.pdf

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Japan: Things are not good http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/4076/japan-things-are-not-good Sun, 29 Jul 2012 01:15:16 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 4076@/talks/discussions The flat panel TV screen industry dropped 70% in Japan during the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2011 due to a lack of demand from local consumers, according to the Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA).

JEITA reported that a total of 3.5 million flat screen TV units were shipped in Japan during the period, and that in June TVs saw an 80.3% decrease at 557,000 units, marking the eleventh consecutive month of decreases.

Overall, 29-inch and below sized TVs dropped 71.8% with 30-36-inch and 37-inch and above ones at around the same rate, said JEITA. The association also reported similar results for 3D TVs.

Sources said the main reason is because consumers in Japan have recently switched out old TVs for new ones and are not on the market for newer or upgraded models. Due consumer behavior patterns in Japan, industry supply chains have begun to shift their focus more towards emerging markets and maintain an overall negative view for growth in Japan.

Meanwhile, industry sources are holding conservative views for TV growth in the second half of 2012, aside from China, which may reach 20 million in sales solely for 3D TVs.

Via: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120724PD210.html

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California: Bankruptcy after bankruptcy http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/4122/california-bankruptcy-after-bankruptcy Thu, 02 Aug 2012 00:13:50 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 4122@/talks/discussions San Bernardino filed for bankruptcy protection on Wednesday citing more than $1 billion of debts and making it the third California city to seek protection from creditors.

The city of about 210,000 residents 65 miles east of Los Angeles declared a fiscal crisis last month after a report said local government had tapped out its reserves and projected spending would top revenue by $45 million in the fiscal year that began on July 1.

The filing, made in the United States Bankruptcy Court, Central California District, states that the city has "more than $1 billion" in liabilities, and estimated that it has between 10,001 and 25,000 creditors.

It also states that San Bernardino has estimated assets of more than $1 billion.

In San Bernardino, a recent report by the city attorney said officials had falsified budget reports to the mayor and council for 13 of the last 16 years, hiding the scale of the city's debt.

Via: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/02/us-usa-bankrupty-san-bernardino-idUSBRE87105220120802


True democracy in action. Constant falsification, debt that can not be paid (and every official knew it).

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Panasonic financial report http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/4098/panasonic-financial-report Tue, 31 Jul 2012 07:12:17 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 4098@/talks/discussions image

Via: http://panasonic.co.jp/corp/news/official.data/data.dir/2012/07/en120731-4/en120731-4-8.pdf

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US: Waste and GDP http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/4064/us-waste-and-gdp Fri, 27 Jul 2012 21:51:21 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 4064@/talks/discussions image

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Greece: More positive moments http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/4062/greece-more-positive-moments Fri, 27 Jul 2012 20:10:25 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 4062@/talks/discussions image

Don't trust banks, get cash (or transfer to EU banks, in worst case) :-)

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Kodak shares down 27% http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/1037/-kodak-shares-down-27 Tue, 27 Sep 2011 06:52:10 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 1037@/talks/discussions Eastman Kodak shares lost a quarter of their value after the lossmaking digital imaging company revealed it was tapping $160m of a $400m credit facility.
Kodak, based in Rochester, New York, gave no detail of the reasons for the cash call in a regulatory filing late on Friday, other than to say it would be used for “general corporate purposes”.
But the market marked its shares down 27 per cent, or 64 cents, at $1.74 at the close of trade in New York. The shares have fallen about 70 per cent so far this year.
Kodak arranged the credit facility in April at 1.5 percentage points in interest above the base rate and has until 2013 to pay back any advances.
On a conference call to discuss second-quarter earnings in July, the company said that it had $957m in cash on June 30 and expected to end the year with $1.6bn-$1.7bn in cash.
It has been restructuring its business and has said it is exploring the sale of about 1,100 digital imaging patents – the company invented the digital camera in 1975.

Via: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/5702f4b2-e875-11e0-8f05-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Z9BjzDn0

Competition is now tough and it is very hard to live on tight margins in compact market.
Also interesting that all this Facebook, Youtube and Flicker integration do not help much :-)]]>
Pre-FOMC Announcement drift http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3902/pre-fomc-announcement-drift- Sat, 14 Jul 2012 15:40:16 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3902@/talks/discussions image

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Interesting read: http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2012/07/the-puzzling-pre-fomc-announcement-drift.html

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Don’t waste your time in crappy startup jobs http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3890/dont-waste-your-time-in-crappy-startup-jobs Fri, 13 Jul 2012 08:52:44 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3890@/talks/discussions What I’m about to say is true now, as of July 2012. It wasn’t necessarily true 15 years ago, and it may not be true next year. Right now, for most people, it’s utterly correct– enough that I feel compelled to say it. The current VC-funded startup scene, which I’ve affectionately started calling “VC-istan”, is– not to be soft with it– a total waste of time for most of the people involved.

Startups. For all the glamour and “sexiness” associated with the concept, the truth is that startups are no more and no less than what they sound like: new, growing businesses. There are a variety of good and bad reasons to join or start businesses, but for most of human history, it wasn’t viewed as a “sexy” process. Getting incorporated, setting up a payroll system, and hiring accountants are just not inspiring duties for most people. They’re mundane tasks that people are more than willing to do in pursuit of an important goal, but starting a business has not typically been considered to be inherently “sexy”. What changed, after about 1996, is that people started seeing ”startups” as an end in themselves. Rather than an awkward growth phase for an emerging, risky business, “startup” became a lifestyle. This was all fine because, for decades, positions at established businesses were systemically overvalued by young talent, and those at growing small companies were undervalued. It made economic sense for ambitious young people to brave the risk of a startup company. Thus, the savviest talent gravitated toward the startups, where they had access to responsibilities and career options that they’d have to wait for years to get in a more traditional setting.

Now, the reverse seems to be true. In 1995, a lot of talented young people went into large corporations because they saw no other option in the private sector– when, in fact, there were credible alternatives, startups being a great option. In 2012, a lot of young talent is going into startups for the same reason: a belief that it’s the only legitimate work opportunity for top talent, and that their careers are likely to stagnate if they work in more established businesses. They’re wrong, I think, and this mistaken belief allows them to be taken advantage of. The typical equity offer for a software engineer is dismally short of what he’s giving up in terms of reduced salary, and the career path offered by startups is not always what it’s made out to be.

For all this, I don’t intend to argue that people shouldn’t join startups. If the offer’s good, and the job looks interesting, it’s worth trying out. I just don’t think that the current, unconditional “startups are awesome!” mentality serves us well. It’s not good for any of us, because there’s no tyrant worse than a peer selling himself short, and right now there are a lot of great people selling themselves very short for a shot at the “startup experience”– whatever that is.

Read the rest at http://michaelochurch.wordpress.com/2012/07/08/dont-waste-your-time-in-crappy-startup-jobs/

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Who destroyed the middle class? http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3874/who-destroyed-the-middle-class Thu, 12 Jul 2012 04:46:39 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3874@/talks/discussions image

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Check three posts below:

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Unmanageable complexity 2 http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3827/unmanageable-complexity-2 Mon, 09 Jul 2012 00:53:28 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3827@/talks/discussions So, I'll be explaining step by step necessary changes to the systems. It'll be long shot.

Bank system

  1. Total elimination of all private banks.
  2. Elimination of central bank in it's current form.
  3. Forming of central finanancial institution under direct goverment supervision.
  4. Total ban on cash. Each firm or individual will be allowed to have exactly one account in CFI.
  5. Total reform of tax system (explained in next posts)
  6. Total reform of accounts and deposites specifically (explained in next posts).
  7. No more you could "invest" money in financial instruments or get any percents from the bank.
  8. Big changes in bank transfer system taking transfer costs and time back to reality. Transfer fees won't be connected to transfer amount.
  9. Special mode for micropayments, with transfer costs in 0.001 cent range.
  10. Total reform on credit system (explained in next posts)

Insurance and medical insurance systems

  1. Total elimination of all private insurers.
  2. Ban on usage of international reinsurers.
  3. CFI will have special department for this task.
  4. Huge reduction of insurance schemes usage in medicine.
  5. Total ban on affilate schemes in medicine.

Mass media

  1. Restriction on private mass media. Private mass media no longer can be present in certain sectors.
  2. Foreign entertainment contents advertising and mass distribution restriction. Each 6 months restriction will be made tighter.
  3. Foreign research and manufacturing joint programs. Each 6 months number of joint programs double.
  4. Introduction of internet firewall. Yes, similar to China one :-)
  5. Total ban on all private social networks and search engines. Yes, I mean Facebook and Google too. Goverment backed search engine and social network will be made based on nationalised existing solutions.

It is very small part. I'll start explaining reasons and adding stuff in next series.
Feel free to ask questions.

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Spain: Cutting and cutting http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3866/spain-cutting-and-cutting Wed, 11 Jul 2012 13:08:28 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3866@/talks/discussions The new measures include an increase in the standard rate of value-added tax to 21% from 18%, and the lower rate to 10% from 8%, a cut in jobless benefits for new claimants, and a salary cut of around 7% for state employees.

They also anticipate making EUR3.5 billion in savings in local government through an ambitious process of centralizing powers at the provincial, or county, level. This is the latest step to counter three-decades of power devolution from the center that has left many concerned about the degree to which Madrid can force austerity on lower-level authorities.

Mr. Rajoy said official data suggest the economic slump will continue and gross domestic product growth will be closer to zero next year. Previously the government had forecast growth of 0.2% in 2013.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120711-707672.html

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Unmanageable Complexity 3 http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3865/unmanageable-complexity-3 Wed, 11 Jul 2012 11:08:36 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3865@/talks/discussions Let's remind about core principles of new approach:

  • Stop wasting people's time
  • Stop wasting energy
  • Stop wasting money
  • Stop wasting resources

It is very interesting that in nature, if you somehow managed to save resources and energy, it means only that either population will grow and new members will consume it all or your competition will do the same :-)

So, any saving and optimisation has meaning only on big scale, as it either allows better distribution of resources, hence, improving average life level, or big community, who implemented saving, will grow, and will have more probability to push ideas and genetic material to competing systems.

In currently working model due to cheap energy, resources and system flaws big margins became quite common.

Open any IT oriented site. Almost all publications are about high marginal products - smartphones, tablets, top game PCs, software.

Margins play role of penalty across all sectors of current system.

  • Huge farma corporations take amazing margins.
  • If you managed to work 12 hours a day and got good salary, you are fucked, as margin will eat most of your work, and it is called taxes :-)
  • If you invented some very complicated device requiring many engineers and many parts, same taxes and other margins will eat you.
  • Using your car to go from home to work and to the shop? Same shit. Most people do the same now. This thing is eating your money. And oil :-)
  • Changing your phone, PC, car or other stuff each year or two? Thing is not modern already? Same shit, guys.
  • Like having four food stores around you? Good for competition? May be, but margin will be more, as all this people and infrastructu comsume money, your money.

What is wrong with it? All is wrong. High margins induce distortion, and lead to redistribution of real resources.
Sometimes this redistribution can look strange, like your stuff going directly to dump sites :-)

We'll continue with margins in series 4.

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Unmanageable Complexity: Sideline 1 http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3853/unmanageable-complexity-sideline-1 Tue, 10 Jul 2012 11:40:04 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3853@/talks/discussions Before Series 3, we'll start other big series of posts, titled Unmanageable Complexity: Sidelines

Many of people still think what banks and derivatives are responsible for all problems.
Some tell what this is globalization.
Fewer guys think what this are political systems and corporations.

Problem is, unmanageable complexity today is like cancer in terminal stage. It is present in most systems.

Especially large hierarchical ones. In many of such systems around the world huge amount of people are doing nothing. Sorry, I am not correct here. Their sole goal consist of keeping this sick structures alive. Or, at least, make them look alive. Or do literally nothing and make it look like you are fighting for structure.
Even more interesting is that many jobless with high benefits perform same function if you view some countries as similar system.
How systems temporary solve this? They increase load, either on remaining good and qualified workers or some outsiders.
So, all this people make life of other people worse. As I like to express it - they are increasing margins.

Margins as a concept and possible solutions will be core of the Series 3 post.

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Unmanageable complexity http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3762/unmanageable-complexity Tue, 03 Jul 2012 04:57:20 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3762@/talks/discussions This is how I call my theory. :-)
World now is in this stage. Complexity became unmanageable.
You can fight it by improving managment, improve help factors or reducing complexity.
Or rebuild the system so managment could cope with existing complexity.
Best way to do all of this. Yet current elites use interesting approach. They fight for help factors - energy and resources, reducing access by others to them (more tensions).
Increase corporate and bank mergers as much as they can (to make complexity even more unmanageable). And try to reduce soverinity of most countries. As they fear that people could get the idea that having all controls in their hands can be very advantageus. Worst thing is that it won't work.

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EU: Iveco http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3757/eu-iveco Mon, 02 Jul 2012 11:59:54 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3757@/talks/discussions Fiat – Chrysler alliance an important figure in Iveco Global CEO David Taylor Irvine (Altavilla Alfredo) on Sunday announced that Fiat industry’s truck business Iveco will be closed before the end of 2012 in three European countries, five truck plant designed to further adjust the production schedule and scale of the company’s trucks in the European region continue to decline in truck sales.

Yesterday spokesperson of Fiat Industrial, Alfredo Altavilla, explained why several production facilities of Iveco (5 in total) will be closed. The presentation of the new Iveco Stralis at Fiat Industrial Village was after all not only good news, since 1075 people will lose their job. The recently announced expansion of production in Spain, where current production of Madrid and Valladolid will be expanded, can be linked back to the closing of the factories in France (Chamberry), Germany (Weiswell and Ulm, Ulm will keep the assembly of firetrucks) and Austria (Graz and Görlitz).

Btw, this promized 1200 jobs in Spain is just announced expectation (without any signed things yet) that could happen in about 4 years.

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US: Fighters for peace http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3646/us-fighters-for-peace Wed, 20 Jun 2012 14:51:16 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3646@/talks/discussions image

I have spoken about the crisis embracing all branches of production. There is one branch, however, has not been affected by the crisis. That branch is the armament industry. It is growing continuously, not-withstanding the crisis. The states are furiously arming and rearming. What for? Not for friendly chats, of course, but for war. And they need war, for it is the only means by which to redivide the world, to redivide markets, sources of raw materials and spheres for the investments.

It is quite understandable that in this situation so-called pacifism is living its last days, that the UN is rotting alive, that "disarmament schemes" come to nothing, while conferences for the reduction of naval armaments become transformed into conferences for renewing and enlarging navies.

This means that the danger of war will grow at an accelerated pace.

See more at http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/1617/on-the-crisis/p1

Chart from : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-springtime-military-industrial-complex

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A Crude Awakening - The Oil Crash http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3610/a-crude-awakening-the-oil-crash Sun, 17 Jun 2012 16:56:51 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3610@/talks/discussions

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Review of world energy http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3573/review-of-world-energy Thu, 14 Jun 2012 03:26:52 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3573@/talks/discussions image

Read whole 2012 report: http://www.bp.com/assets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2012.pdf

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The End of Suburbia http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3575/the-end-of-suburbia Thu, 14 Jun 2012 07:11:44 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3575@/talks/discussions

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Germany and "green" energy http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3494/germany-and-green-energy Thu, 07 Jun 2012 06:50:17 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3494@/talks/discussions With a steep growth of power generation from photovoltaic (PV) and wind power and with 8 GW base load capacity suddenly taken out of service the situation in Germany has developed into a nightmare for system operators.

The peak demand in Germany is about 80 GW. The variations of wind and PV generation create situations which require long distance transport of huge amounts of power. The grid capacity is far from sufficient for these transports. The result is a remarkably large number of curtailments of RES (Renewable Energy Sources).

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  • Wind power peaks seem not to be simultaneous with PV peaks. This means that PV does not add its full peak capacity to the grid problems during high wind periods.
  • The main part of the German wind power is installed in the northern part of the country while the main part of the PV capacity is installed in Bavaria. The nuclear moratorium has created the most serious supply problems in the southern part of Germany. This observation suggests additional PV generation to relieve the supply problems.
  • PV generation cannot reduce the need for peak capacity. The reason is that there is no PV generation during the evening peak load.
  • The regulating work which must be made by controllable power sources grows considerably with the growth of wind power and PV. TenneT is one of Germany’s 4 main grid operators. In the TenneT area a calculation for April 2011 has shown that wind power alone would extend the regulating range by more than 50%, while the actual combination of wind power and PV has doubled the regulating range.

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23% of the Hours in Q1 2012 Affected by Interventions

The number of interventions has increased dramatically in Germany from 2010/11 to 2011/12.

Feed-in reduction was initiated 197 times during the winter season 2011/12 compared to 39 times the previous year.

In 184 cases wind power caused high feed-in from distribution grids into the transmission grids. 5 cases were remarkable and affected the entire grid

Via: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9205#more

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Italy: Fucked too http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3516/italy-fucked-too Fri, 08 Jun 2012 22:33:43 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3516@/talks/discussions Italian industrial production fell sharply in April. Industrial output fell 1.9% m/m, following a 0.6% increase in March. Moody’s Analytics had forecast a 0.5% drop. On a year-ago basis, production shrank 9.2%, after a 5.6% decrease previously. May’s purchasing managers' index is consistent with further weakness in manufacturing.

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US: Long term budget outlook http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3481/us-long-term-budget-outlook Tue, 05 Jun 2012 19:54:45 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3481@/talks/discussions image

I strongly recommend to check whole report.
It can look boring initially, but it contains interesting things:

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook.pdf

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Debt http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3447/debt Sat, 02 Jun 2012 02:57:09 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3447@/talks/discussions Most things in recent months are driven by debt.
Goverments of developed countries and big corporations consume big amounts of money.
And to be afloat you need new investors, existing ones must bring more and you also need very low yield on existing debt. Fear made by mass media are also good weapon.

Regulators are allowing banks to escape counting their country's debt against capital requirements and loosening other rules to create a steady market for government bonds, the study says.

While that helps governments issue more and more debt, the strategy could ultimately explode if the governments are unable to make the bond payments, leaving the banks with billions of toxic debt, says Citigroup strategist Hans Lorenzen.

Via: http://www.cnbc.com/id/47633576

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Greece default flowchart http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3412/greece-default-flowchart Wed, 30 May 2012 11:04:54 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3412@/talks/discussions image

Via: http://www.marketplace.org/topics/world/easy-street/what-happens-if-greece-defaults-flow-chart

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Oil prices http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3424/oil-prices Thu, 31 May 2012 03:31:00 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3424@/talks/discussions image


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Interesting, isn't it?

Especially considering that big amounts of olive oil are made by small business.

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Spain: Smoke. Soon it'll be fire. http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3403/spain-smoke.-soon-itll-be-fire. Tue, 29 May 2012 12:37:02 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3403@/talks/discussions
  • The General Retail Trade Index at constant prices showed an interannual variation of -11.3% in April, more than seven points below that registered in March.
  • The average rate of retail sector sales stood at –5.9% during the first quarter of the year, as compared with the same period of 2011.
  • All Large chain stores experienced a decrease in sales, as compared with the same month of 2011.
  • Employment in the retail sector decreased 0.9% as compared with April 2011.
  • Via: http://www.ine.es/en/daco/daco42/daco4215/ccm0412_en.pdf

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    Energy per capita http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3372/energy-per-capita Sun, 27 May 2012 06:14:40 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3372@/talks/discussions image

    Chart represents one of the theories predicting big problems with energy :-)

    See more at:
    http://dieoff.org/page125.htm
    http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/6/135437/7111

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    Key World Energy Statistics http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3371/key-world-energy-statistics Sun, 27 May 2012 05:32:05 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3371@/talks/discussions image


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    See many more charts at http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/key_world_energy_stats-1.pdf

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    US: US will go bankrupt, soon. http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/3317/us-us-will-go-bankrupt-soon.- Wed, 23 May 2012 14:17:25 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 3317@/talks/discussions Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 51% of Likely Voters believe the federal government will go bankrupt and be unable to pay its debt before the federal budget is balanced. Thirty-six percent (36%) disagree and think it's more likely that the federal budget will be balanced first. Thirteen percent (13%) are not sure.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/federal_budget/may_2012/51_predict_u_s_government_will_go_bankrupt_before_budget_is_balanced

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