http://personal-view.com/talks/discussions/tagged/economics/p11/feed.rss Sun, 28 Apr 24 08:59:27 +0000 Tagged with economics - Personal View Talks en-CA http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/359/unemployment Sat, 09 Jul 2011 05:50:25 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 359@/talks/discussions












]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/368/us-obesity Sun, 10 Jul 2011 17:38:14 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 368@/talks/discussions

Read more interesting data at:
http://healthyamericans.org/reports/obesity2011/Obesity2011Report.pdf]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/367/italy-things-could-become-worse Sun, 10 Jul 2011 17:32:22 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 367@/talks/discussions

10 years bond yields:


30 years bond yields:


]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/346/revolution-how-things-will-change-in-the-next-20-years- Thu, 07 Jul 2011 07:20:07 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 346@/talks/discussions SocGen has published a fantastic, must read big picture report, which compares the world in the 1980/1985-2000/2005 time period and juxtaposes it to what the author, Veronique Riches-Flores predicts will happen over the next two decades years, the period from 2005/2010 to 2025/2030. Unlike other very narrow and short-sighted projections, this one is based not on trivial and grossly simplified assumptions such as perpetual growth rates, but on a holistic demographic approach to perceiving the world. At its core, SocGen compares the period that just ended, one in which world growth was driven by an expansion in supply, to one that will be shaped by an explosion of demand. And, unfortunately, the transformation from the Supply-driven to the Demand-driven world will not be pretty. Summarizing this outlook: "Over the last three decades strong growth in the working-aged population across Asia and the opening-up of world trade have led to considerable expansion in global production capacities. These factors created a highly competitive and disinflationary environment of plentiful supply, which was characterised by low interest rates, a credit boom and, in the financial markets, exuberant appetite for risky assets. As the demographic cycle progresses, we are seeing the emergence of an aging population, which is less favourable to productive investment. Meanwhile the rise in living standards among the emerging population heralds an unprecedented level of growth in demand. The world supply/demand balance is dramatically changing against a backdrop of resource shortages which are likely to favour shorter cycles, increased government intervention in economic affairs and inflation." In other words, contrary to what you may have read elsewhere, the future is about to get ugly. And topping it all off is a Kondratieff cycle chart: what's not to like.

Interesting read.
You can find it at http://www.zerohedge.com/article/coming-new-world-order-revolution-how-things-will-change-next-20-years-kondratieff-cycle-per]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/339/china-to-blame-again Wed, 06 Jul 2011 03:22:34 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 339@/talks/discussions Smoke belching from Asia's rapidly growing economies is largely responsible for a halt in global warming in the decade after 1998 because of sulphur's cooling effect, even though greenhouse gas emissions soared, a U.S. study said on Monday.

The paper raised the prospect of more rapid, pent-up climate change when emerging economies eventually crack down on pollution.

World temperatures did not rise from 1998 to 2008, while manmade emissions of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuel grew by nearly a third, various data show.

The researchers from Boston and Harvard Universities and Finland's University of Turku said pollution, and specifically sulphur emissions, from coal-fueled growth in Asia was responsible for the cooling effect.

Sulphur allows water drops or aerosols to form, creating hazy clouds which reflect sunlight back into space.

"Anthropogenic activities that warm and cool the planet largely cancel after 1998, which allows natural variables to play a more significant role," the paper said.

Natural cooling effects included a declining solar cycle after 2002, meaning the sun's output fell.

The study said that the halt in warming had fueled doubts about anthropogenic climate change, where scientists say manmade greenhouse gas emissions are heating the Earth.

"It has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008," said the study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/04/us-climate-sulphur-idUSTRE7634IQ20110704

Now it is global cooling to be expected.
But motherfuckers responsible for this are still narrow-eyed.
I am sure that our Nobel price winner, world peace leader will make the right choice - nuke this bastards.]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/343/greece-bank-deposits-and-credits Wed, 06 Jul 2011 12:10:25 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 343@/talks/discussions

Red - Credits.
Blue - Deposits.]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/338/global-train-wreck-coming Wed, 06 Jul 2011 03:09:37 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 338@/talks/discussions
Referring to the most recent global economic crisis as a mere ''blip'', he said the coming crisis could undo the mining boom and bring on inflation of the kind not seen since the 1970s.

Professor McKibbin told the Melbourne Institute conference dozens of European countries now had gross government debts on track to exceed 60 per cent of GDP. ''Japan is forecast to be 200 per cent of GDP, the US is forecast to be over 100 per cent of GDP,'' he said.

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''At zero interest rates that can be sustained, but at 5 per cent interest rates countries have to put aside 5 per cent of their GDP every year just to service the debt. That is not sustainable.

''Already consumers aren't spending and investors aren't spending because of the tax increases that are in prospect.

''Greece, Portugal and Ireland don't just need to have their debts written off, they need to have a 30 per cent to 40 per cent depreciation of their real exchange rate,'' he told the conference.

''There are two ways to do that, either pull out of the euro and depreciate by 40 per cent, or have deflation of 40 per cent over the next 12 months.

''I do not believe any society can survive having a 40 per cent deflation that's been imposed by the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank.''

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/global-train-wreck-coming-20110630-1gszi.html#ixzz1RJ4ppxd3]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/315/japan-suffers-from-power-shortages Fri, 01 Jul 2011 20:07:43 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 315@/talks/discussions New car sales in Japan slumped to a record low in June due to parts shortages caused by the March 11th disaster.
The Japan Automobile Dealers Association says sales of new cars for June, excluding mini-vehicles, totaled 225,000 units -- the lowest figure since record keeping began in 1968.
The plunge of more than 23 percent year-on-year was 14 points lower than in May.

Source - http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/01_32.html

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All manufacturers and other firms must cut power consumption by 15%. :-)

Tokyo's subway system has begun temporarily stopping air-conditioning at stations because limits have been placed on heavy electricity users from Friday.
The system run by the Tokyo government began suspending the use of air-conditioners for one and half to two hours from noon to 3 PM at nearly half of its 106 stations.

The Japanese auto industry has begun weekend operations on Saturday in an effort to avoid electricity shortages this summer.
Thirteen automakers and their parts suppliers are shifting factory operations to weekends because power demands on Saturday and Sunday are lower than weekdays. To compensate, the factories will shut down on Thursday and Friday.

Looks like improvement, isn't it?]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/311/unemployment Fri, 01 Jul 2011 07:21:39 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 311@/talks/discussions

Japan unemployment since 2009.

Green - actual employed. Red - not included in workforce.

Looking at such data it is easy to understand that most unemployment changes are related mostly to number of not included in workforce.
For Japan you even can find some logic in this - more people are going to pension in last period.
For US it is more complicated as such approach is main technique to hold unemployment numbers in last years.]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/296/us-manufacturing-survey Mon, 27 Jun 2011 22:45:05 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 296@/talks/discussions There may be those among the less than brainwashed lemmingerati out there who have noticed what, as we have pointed out for the past month when reporting on the various manufacturing and regional Fed indices, has been an epic collapse in the appropriate data series. As John Lohman so kindly demonstrates, the two month implosion has been beyond epic, and while certainly the biggest drop in the past decade, may also be the all time worst ever. To the point of this post: the last time we had an economic contraction of this magnitude was back in February of 2008, which was two months into the most acute recession in post-depression history. We are confident that once the groupthink wraps its head around the fact that the auto production based renaissance is not coming, and the economy officially tumbles into the commode of Ben Bernanke's fiat dungeon, the NBER will determine (with an appropriate 12-18 month delay), that the current recession started in April of 2011.



Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/manufacturing-surveys-imply-us-economy-has-entered-second-month-rerecession]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/266/greece-bleak-reality Wed, 22 Jun 2011 15:14:23 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 266@/talks/discussions Privatization of most important public companies, constant salary cuts, pension payment cuts.
Task is simple - sell as much as you could sell and hope that people won't hang you on street lamps.
All that we see is just small rehearsal to learn and prepare leading nations to same fate.

"This is not a program to salvage the economy, it's a program for pillage before bankruptcy,"
said Alexis Tsipras, head of the small opposition Left Coalition.

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It's not just Greece.

PhD economist Michael Hudson said in 2009:

•The giant financial institutions have already killed their host - the real American economy
•Since they realize that the American economy is dead, they are trying to suck as much blood out of America as possible while the corpse is still warm
•Because the American economy is dead, their plan is to soon jump to another host. They will ship all of their money overseas

]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/209/inflation-corn Fri, 10 Jun 2011 01:35:12 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 209@/talks/discussions

Looking at 2008 and 2011 you can see some common things, isn't it]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/115/do-you-really-need-education Fri, 20 May 2011 00:36:22 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 115@/talks/discussions

General humanities specialities are less and less required.

You will see fierce competition in wedding shooting market soon :-)]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/210/food-inc. Fri, 10 Jun 2011 01:45:48 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 210@/talks/discussions ]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/174/-labors-share-of-national-income-lowest-in-history Fri, 03 Jun 2011 23:47:38 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 174@/talks/discussions


Read the rest here - http://www.zerohedge.com/article/attention-marxists-labors-share-national-income-drops-lowest-history

And China is no longer optimistic about US:

]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/145/ten-commandments Fri, 27 May 2011 15:14:25 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 145@/talks/discussions
Juncker: I already have an idea of what you are getting at.

SPIEGEL: Are you familiar with the Eighth Commandment?

Juncker: Of course. Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbour.

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SPIEGEL: Apparently you don’t take it very seriously. More than two weeks ago, you denied a report by SPIEGEL ONLINE about a secret meeting of several European Union finance ministers to discuss the situation in Greece, even though the official limousines were already pulling up in Luxembourg.

Juncker: The most important commandment is not to inflict harm on others. Although it isn’t stated quite that way in the Ten Commandments, it follows from them. The finance ministers of several Euro Group nations had agreed to meet on Friday with the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Jean-Claude Trichet. Because the financial markets in Europe were still open and trading was still underway on Wall Street, we had to deny the existence of the meeting. Otherwise the course of the euro against the dollar, which had already fallen as a result of your report, would have plunged disastrously.

SPIEGEL: With this false denial, you not only harmed your own credibility, but that of European financial policy as well.

Juncker: And it didn’t exactly enhance the credibility of SPIEGEL ONLINE to disseminate the false report that we were meeting in Luxembourg to discuss Greece’s withdrawal from the monetary union.

Read the rest here - http://www.peopleunlikeus.com/?p=3663

Or better watch this instead of reading lies new from this motherfucker (and you must be sure that they won't tell you the truth):

]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/135/a-fascinating-and-prophetic-1994-interview-about-global-free-market-... Tue, 24 May 2011 17:32:23 +0000 lenuisible 135@/talks/discussions

there are 6 parts, very interesting.


]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/122/fed.-road-to-hell.- Sun, 22 May 2011 01:53:05 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 122@/talks/discussions
Let's look.

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Since October 2010 on Fed balance you see 675 billlions increase (for securities). National debt increased by 783 billions at the same time.
So, about 86% of debt increase had been sponsored by Fed :-)
In last three months since 18 February till 19 May, US debt increased by 221 milliards, in the same time Fed balance increased by 304 billions.
This will be about 137% of debt issued.
Plus US have problems with debt limit, so are forced to stop many payments to pension funds and go to over markets to finance staggering deficit.
]]> http://personal-view.com/talks/discussion/116/other-side-of-obtained-freedom Fri, 20 May 2011 01:02:42 +0000 Vitaliy_Kiselev 116@/talks/discussions NATO affair in Libya do not help also.





Read very interesting story titled The hunger to come in Egypt.
]]>